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Electricity price predictions

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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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We received an email from E.ON today saying: "Ofgem recently announced that due to rising costs the energy price cap will go up in January. The government will increase the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) discount to keep average household bills the same, but even so, some people's prices are increasing."

Our price will go up 1/2 a pence per kWh from January 1, but I was under the impression that there was supposed to be no movement on pricing until March 31, 2023.

E.ON

 

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(@allyfish)
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@editor I got the same, but for my mother's retirement flat, which is an account in my name. She only has electricity available to her. Her daytime tariff is going up over 2p/kWh and her E7 night time tariff by over 2p/kWh. Shameful

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Mars
 Mars
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@allyfish, weird as the cap freeze was supposed to be in place until the end of March – has this been revised/lifted and I missed it?

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Jeff
 Jeff
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Only the average across all regions was guaranteed under the EPG.

The regional rates change on 1st January in line with the EPC rates set by Ofgem.

Suppliers have discretion how they spilt the peak and off rates so you really should phone up a few suppliers to see which works out cheaper for your usage pattern 


   
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Mars
 Mars
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@Jeff, I read a piece in one of the papers last night that wholesale gas prices have dropped significantly, helped greatly by a mild winter, yet OFGEM are still going to increase the price cap this coming April. Is this because we're (as consumers) having to pay off the previous price cap when prices were high?

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Jeff
 Jeff
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It is basically because the price cap is calculated on a historical window, not today's prices. 

So the window for the 1st April price increase has already closed on 17th Feb and includes the period when wholesale prices were higher. 

Suppliers also bought the energy they are selling us now a long time ago, hedging. We saw what happened when suppliers got that wrong... 30 failed... 

Then there is the backwardisation (where Ofgem look to see if the previous caps were sufficient), variable cost of failed suppliers etc. making a bit of a difference. 

1st July looks like the ofgem cap will be below the Energy Price Guarantee. 

There may be a delay in new fixed tariff and some other tariff as suppliers have hedged a lot of energy at high prices. Ofgem bought in some rules around switching suppliers to try and limit the risk of suppliers going bust due to lots of switching. We have seen Octopus limit their Tracker tariff for example to 50 a day... 

 

This post was modified 1 year ago 6 times by Jeff

   
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Jeff
 Jeff
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(@allyfish)
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@jeff thank you. The above might just as well be carved on the tombstone of the Government BUS scheme when they quietly scrap it later this year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64710225

It perfectly explains why the Government's plans to wean the nation of gas central heating are doomed to fail.

For as long as mains gas per kWh remains at 25% of the cost of electricity per kWh, ASHPs will remain a niche product only for those who can afford them, and not a viable alternative so save energy and money on bills and to decarbonise the UK. The cost of electricity has to come down relative to the cost of mains gas. Without that impetus, and even with ASHPs returning CoPs of 4:1, where's the incentive?

We truly do have the lunatics running the asylum.

This post was modified 1 year ago 2 times by AllyFish

   
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(@diverted-energy)
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Said it for years - an expensive folly that supports the more affluent to get their hands on government money, better spent elsewhere!!

Since September, I've consumed £100's worth of gas - that's nearly 6 months, then £225's worth of electricity in a 3 bedroomed 1970's detached house.

Government has given me £400, so my actual bill is negative- for those running 7kw Heat Pumps at 34p/jwh, rising to 40p/Kwh in April, can you claim the same?

Solar should be the primary driver and no Heat Pump should be offered to anyone without that first and Water versions are not good for heating. The benefits I see is cheap Hot Water 9 months of the year and a very expensive way to achieve it.

I've said it before, it won't be long before Solicitors are advertising Compensation Claims against the Scheme.

Air to Air is a damned sight more efficient and effective in that a room can be heated in minutes and maintained for little cost. I'm just about to install a 24,000 BTU upstairs for volume Space heating.

At £1,500 fitted, a tenth the price of a Heat Pump installation. Outlook for Gas supply is worse next Winter and no doubt the Summer squabble for Gas supply will again shoot prices now China is waking up.

It's comical that some claim Heat Pumps are 'Greener', look at the UK generation Stats for a whole 12months. Yes, on Winter Windy days, it looks great - but that's 3 months and the rest of the year, up to 80% of our electricity is from burning Gas. So telll me how can they be produce less CO2 than directly burning gas in a boiler?

You've been sold a WHOPPING BIG lie..

With no plans immediately to produce more Grid generation, with another 1million EVs plus numerous Heat Pump and Electric Boiler installations - do people seriously believe energy prices will fall in the near future and risk of Blackouts will go away?

OK- I've burnt some Gas the last 6 months, but I bet that is comparable to the gas Heat Pumps have consumed at a generating station. My CO2 compared to my neighbours is a fraction by using Solar to give 9 months non Grid power,, Hot Water to supplement heating using Oil Heaters and Air to Air units.

Surplus Solar will end up in the so called  'ZERO Emission' Vehicle I drive which again is a false statement considering the amount of gas burnt to charge it.

Heat Pumps never were and will never be the Silver Bullet that is being claimed. There are far better ways to save money and the Climate than these expensive follies.

Last year, after many years of saying no, I relented on purchasing a dishwasher my partner had been asking for for years. I am kicking myself as for all these years of saying we didn't need one - its been the most energy saving appliance I've owned.

I no longer need to maintain Hot Water storage at 60 degrees just to wash up the pots which was the sole reason for the temperature of Hot Water. As longbas the tanks deliver Hot Water above 38 degrees, we can have comfortable baths and showers. This now means more days of using hot water via the Sun.

If I need Hot Water in the kitchen and tanks are not high enough, I can either wait or boil a kettle. I'm thinking of an electric undersink heater to take pre-heated Hot Water and keep a shot of Hot Water locally. By reducing the tank temperature to 45 degrees and using the dishwasher timer or battery - the dishwasher has been a revelation.

Before anyone moans about legionnaires, tank water is pumped via a big 120kwh plate heat exchanger with grossly oversized surface area in it to allow cooler tank water and max transfer.

 

 

 

This post was modified 1 year ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@diverted-energy)
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @diverted-energy

Said it for years - an expensive folly that supports the more affluent to get their hands on government money, better spent elsewhere!!

Since September, I've consumed £100's worth of gas - that's nearly 6 months, then £225's worth of electricity in a 3 bedroomed 1970's detached house.

Government has given me £400, so my actual bill is negative- for those running 7kw Heat Pumps at 34p/jwh, rising to 40p/Kwh in April, can you claim the same?

Solar should be the primary driver and no Heat Pump should be offered to anyone without that first and Water versions are not good for heating. The benefits I see is cheap Hot Water 9 months of the year and a very expensive way to achieve it.

I've said it before, it won't be long before Solicitors are advertising Compensation Claims against the Scheme.

Air to Air is a damned sight more efficient and effective in that a room can be heated in minutes and maintained for little cost. I'm just about to install a 24,000 BTU upstairs for volume Space heating.

At £1,500 fitted, a tenth the price of a Heat Pump installation. Outlook for Gas supply is worse next Winter and no doubt the Summer squabble for Gas supply will again shoot prices now China is waking up.

It's comical that some claim Heat Pumps are 'Greener', look at the UK generation Stats for a whole 12months. Yes, on Winter Windy days, it looks great - but that's 3 months and the rest of the year, up to 80% of our electricity is from burning Gas. So telll me how can they be produce less CO2 than directly burning gas in a boiler?

You've been sold a WHOPPING BIG lie..

With no plans immediately to produce more Grid generation, with another 1million EVs plus numerous Heat Pump and Electric Boiler installations - do people seriously believe energy prices will fall in the near future and risk of Blackouts will go away?

OK- I've burnt some Gas the last 6 months, but I bet that is comparable to the gas Heat Pumps have consumed at a generating station. My CO2 compared to my neighbours is a fraction by using Solar to give 9 months non Grid power,, Hot Water to supplement heating using Oil Heaters and Air to Air units.

Surplus Solar will end up in the so called  'ZERO Emission' Vehicle I drive which again is a false statement considering the amount of gas burnt to charge it.

Heat Pumps never were and will never be the Silver Bullet that is being claimed. There are far better ways to save money and the Climate than these expensive follies.

@Diverted.Energy,

Calm down! Maybe you would find it less stressful to spend your time on a different forum where people share your views on renewable heating and your ramblings may be better appreciated?

 

 


   
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Transparent
(@transparent)
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Sheesh, @diverted-energy - what a lot of hot air!

I could do with some of that 😉 

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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