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Electricity price predictions

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Jeff
 Jeff
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The differential for domestic customers on the variable rate is basically fixed now until Oct 2024 unless the government do another u turn. Unit rates are now fixed. 

There are a few schemes launching that will help further with the differential in the short term like

https://www.ovoenergy.com/blog/ovo-news-power-move

Octopus are also launching a similar scheme.

Wholesale gas prices have fallen dramatically so be interesting to see what happens over winter. Plus lots of LNG tankers have already been booked for the UK.

Screenshot 20221010 131918 com.android.chrome

Depending on what the government do with electric pricing, the difference between gas and electricity unit costs may increase again for a short while before electricity becomes the obvious choice. Depends just how tough the government want to be on electricity generators... 

The Energy Price Guarantee has somewhat distorted the market obviously keeping all prices down so there not quite as much incentive for domestic customers to make changes. 


   
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Mars
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Posted by: @transparent

There's a discount for blankets?!

Wow... that's a great idea!

Just came across these Kudd.ly hoodie blankets and it reminded me of the blanket and self bag conversation here. Matching hoodie blankets for the family this winter 🤣 

 

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Jeff
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... and now the universal energy price guarantee is only going to be in place until April.

Back to the quarterly ofgem price cap in April, with some targeted support for some. 

 

 

 


   
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@jeff

I was reading over the weekend that some of the 'grown up' MP's have been recommending a Government supported home insulation program, which to me makes much more sense than the Government borrowing money, which our children and grandchildren will have to repay, to help pay everyone's energy bills at the moment.

Whilst I feel certain that there will be many who disagree with my statement, but as a society we need to reduce the 'live now, pay later' philosophy that seems prevalent throughout much of the developed world.

Increasing our energy efficiency and hence reducing demand cannot only be good for each individual, but for society and the World overall. In the longer term it should also help reduce our bills.

This post was modified 2 years ago by Derek M

   
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Transparent
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Posted by: @jeff

... and now the universal energy price guarantee is only going to be in place until April.

This is a tricky issue.

Overall I'd prefer that the UK solves the energy crisis by innovation rather than government subsidies across the board. Technical innovation won't come forward unless there is pressure to do so.

Posted by: @derek-m

some of the 'grown up' MP's have been recommending a Government supported home insulation program,

There are two local energy exhibitions happening close to where I live. In conversation with the organiser yesterday I heard that the main messages are to be:

  • retro fit your house (insulation & LED lighting)
  • use a slow cooker
  • switch electricity supplier to obtain cash-back for avoiding use between 4-8pm

 

However, in this area there are two enormous problems with that:

a: we can't find local insulation installers with any spare capacity to take on new customers

b: in SW Region, we are committed to a rapid increase in renewable-generation which requires £6.7b of grid upgrades. That's to be funded from the daily standing charge. So however little energy I use because of my newly-insulated super-efficient house, I would still need to pay the same escalating levy to National Grid Distribution for reinforcement works. 😥 

There are other technical solutions which cost a lot less.

But there's no incentive to pursue them if Ofgem continues to permit lavish expenditure, beyond what fuel-impoverished households can afford.

This post was modified 2 years ago 2 times by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Jeff
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@derek-m i was never in favour of the universal bit of of the Energy Bill Support Scheme or the Energy Price Guarantee.

A lot of people, including many on this forum could have managed without it. We have already donated our £400 pounds from the Energy Bill Support Scheme to charity.

If we are going to have a large scale insulating programme the government absolutely need to make sure there is a workforce and supply chain to support it. Else it will be another car crash. I agree we need a plan on insulating and a targeted carrot and stick approach. It may need more stick than carrot as the government has limited cash to encourage people. 

I would also scrap the universal nature of the boiler upgrade scheme for installing heat pumps. Make it more targeted to those that can't afford the change, but make it more generous for those people.

 


   
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Jeff
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Posted by: @transparent
Posted by: @jeff

... and now the universal energy price guarantee is only going to be in place until April.

This is a tricky issue.

Overall I'd prefer that the UK solves the energy crisis by innovation rather than government subsidies across the board. Technical innovation won't come forward unless there is pressure to do so.

Posted by: @derek-m

some of the 'grown up' MP's have been recommending a Government supported home insulation program,

There are two local energy exhibitions happening close to where I live. In conversation with the organiser yesterday I heard that the main messages are to be:

  • retro fit your house (insulation & LED lighting)
  • use a slow cooker
  • switch electricity supplier to obtain cash-back for avoiding use between 4-8pm

 

However, in this area there are two enormous problems with that:

a: we can't find local insulation installers with any spare capacity to take on new customers

b: in SW Region, we are committed to a rapid increase in renewable-generation which requires £6.7b of grid upgrades. That's to be funded from the daily standing charge. So however little energy I use because of my newly-insulated super-efficient house, I would still need to pay the same escalating levy to National Grid Distribution for reinforcement works. 😥 

There are other technical solutions which cost a lot less.

But there's no incentive to pursue them if Ofgem continues to permit lavish expenditure, beyond what fuel-impoverished households can afford.

Perhaps take the infrastructure upgrades off electricity bills and stick them on general taxation.

That would certainly focus the minds of government on whether the upgrades were value for money.

I very much doubt the government are that interested in the costs of the upgrades while they are included as a small part of the standing charge? Probably never going to be a high priority? Perhaps we can qualify it in terms of an individual customers bill? 

Do we know how much a year these upgrades add to the standing charge? Is it pennies a day? I am not sure how much we are talking about as a consumer? 

 


   
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@prjohn

I worked in the Electricity Supply Industry when it was privatised.

It wasn't long after privatisation before the 'bean-counters' started taking over. Efficiency improvements were scrapped, staff numbers were cut, but more contractors were hired, and they commenced the process of running the industry into the ground to increase profits.


   
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Jeff
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Gas price continues on a downward path for now at least

Screenshot 20221017 125123 com.android.chrome

   
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(@derek-m)
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@jeff

I think that Transparent pointed out in previous posts, that in his particular area, many of the grid upgrades would not be necessary if there had been more intelligent planning as to where renewable generation was sited and connected to the grid. Also more use of large scale energy storage should be used to help lop the peaks and fill the troughs, and thereby help balance supply and demand. Because there are so many different companies involved, all with their own agenda, the most cost efficient methods are invariably not carried out.


   
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Mars
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Posted by: @jeff

... and now the universal energy price guarantee is only going to be in place until April.

Back to the quarterly ofgem price cap in April, with some targeted support for some.  

I wonder what the new date will be when we have a new chancellor on Friday 😂

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU
From Zero to Heat Pump Hero: https://amzn.to/4bWkPFb

Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm: https://myhomefarm.co.uk


   
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