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Electricity price predictions

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(@diverted-energy)
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439 kWhs
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Ignore the British Gas comment earlier. I hadn't realised how old that post was..


   
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(@diverted-energy)
Estimable Member Member
439 kWhs
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 64
 

Five to Ten terrible Winters.

7:20am - August Bank Holiday - here's consumption.

Screenshot 20220829 072207 Chrome

 

Belgium's energy minister has warned that EU countries will face "five to ten" "terrible" winters if nothing is done to reduce natural gas prices.

Mr Johnson's now claiming he is the Greenest ever Prime Minister..

The energy price cap, which is set to nearly double from already record highs at the start of October, is currently predicted to reach £5,600 by the start of next year.

But energy consultancy firm Auxilione has now warned the the average household could be paying a £7,700 bill from April 2023 - with gas costing consumers 34.22p per kWh.

This post was modified 2 years ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@chickenbig)
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To be fair, electricity exports are running at around 4 GW net. Not sure why this is the case, but perhaps this is simply an alternative way of transferring energy to the continent (one presumes the gas pipes are pumping at full speed from LNG terminals to Dutch storage, so we may as well burn gas here rather than have them transfer it and burn it there).

We should remain hopeful that the French nuclear fleet will be in full working order by autumn. Their rivers should be significantly cooler (at the risk of provoking debate, how does one cost water abstraction for agriculture versus warming it for power generation, especially when the externalities lie in other countries). Plus I think wind generation picks up in the autumn/winter.


   
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(@prjohn)
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@diverted-energy Break your graph down to regional and you get a completely different picture. Here are the numbers for Scotland for the same time. Over 50% from renewables. Biomass 2.0%Hydroelectric 6.1%Gas 47.1%Interconnects 2.0%Nuclear 22.3%Solar 0.9%Wind 19.6% What I also found curious was Scotlands Solar production was twice that of the UK's.


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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Are we all moving to Scotland for Winter? Last one out of England, turn the lights out!

It's the Net that concerns me, same arguments can be used for Cornwall for Solar, North Wales for offshore Wind. But I thought the whole concept of a Grid was to balance.

I don't think regions will be disconnected like the days of the old Town Gas works. Then again,  pull the plug on London, Birmingham and Manchester and the rest of us will be fine.

The reason two relatives Tariff is working is that cheap Scottish wind. But the reality is, UK wide, there ain't enough..

I know Scotland and Cornwall want independence but disconnecting?

Interconnects export  we may be sending to the EU for Monday morning peak then get some back later. Could be transfer agreement from one country to another. There is also logic to burn additional gas here for electricity and send that instead to allow gas to be stored than burnt there. Other reasons too.

This post was modified 2 years ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@prjohn)
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@diverted-energy "But I thought the whole concept of a Grid was to balance." You could argue the grid isn't balanced. The imbalance comes from the way electricity prices are calculated and that's on the dearest commodity gas. This is irrespective of how much is produced by the cheapest. Based on today's use Scotlands prices could be 50% cheaper than the UK. The same would apply to various regions throughout the UK. This is a strong argument for regional pricing, 

 


   
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(@transparent)
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Posted by: @diverted-energy

But I thought the whole concept of a Grid was to balance.

The National Grid provides a 'balance' of supply & demand, and the 50Hz sychronisation.

The energy-mix varies according to your geographical location. DNOs generally have the mix data at the BSP level. That's the transformer which outputs 33kV to Primary Sub-stations.

Here's my energy mix obtained from Western Power's Carbon-Tracer site at 09:50

eMix 29aug22

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@batalto)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1091
 

Just fixed for the next 12 months with octopus. 7.5p off peak and 39.84p peak. Estimated bill is roughly £2.5k. Given my old Go tariff was 5p and 15p it's fairly crazy!

Second battery should be here soon, so looking to take a good dent out of that. Hopefully things are less crazy next winter. I doubt I'll get another "good" fixed deal.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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(@prjohn)
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@batalto Great if you can get that deal. If I could then I would by batteries.


   
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(@chickenbig)
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Posted by: @batalto

7.5p off peak and 39.84p peak

Now that really does make batteries worthwhile. A 5x difference in price is crazy; even with 80% round trip efficiency you're at 9.375p/kWh. I'm guessing you'll be able to bring down your £2,500/year bill down by a fair bit.

For comparison, the 10 month Octopus fixed tariff I got in April this year is 40.75p/kWh and 37.65p/day standing charge. Speaking as someone without a car or room to park a car at home (no sour grapes involved), it does seem a bit of a subsidy to those able to afford an electric car and have room for a charger.


   
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(@batalto)
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@chickenbig you don't an EV... No one checks. Just saying

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
Heat pump calculator spreadsheet - HERE


   
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(@derek-m)
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@diverted-energy

I think that I would rather sail South for the Winter on my super yacht, if I had one.


   
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