Cornwall Insight has been accurate right through, 12% last Oct, 54% April and last few weeks to 67%, 72%, then finally 77% last week, where a week later, 80% is announced.

A joke that OFGEM went to the press to tell media to stop scaremongering with reports of 80%, then it announces 80%.

Then this: "Energy consultancy firm Cornwall Insight said a typical annual bill could hit nearly £5,400 in January, and £6,600 in April. That would be a £550-a-month bill".

23:25 - Friday night, not too chilly.

UK is consuming 24GW.

2.7% from Renewables- 2.3% Wind

17% Nuclear 

2.1 Coal and wait for it..

A whopping 64.8% from Gas!.

Bold and Red this time.. 

Saturday 27th August- 7:25am

UK consuming 19.8GW

77% from Gas

Anyone starting to smell the coffee yet?

We've blindly put our eggs in one basket. It's like buying a 4.2litre car with a 2litre fuel tank.

Posted by: @diverted-energy

Well, this one has certainly headed off at a tangent..

Mea culpa!

Desperately resisting the temptation to respond to @derek-m about the technicalities of combating grid losses and lack of engineering knowledge amongst management, but I will stick to the subject:

The UK is exposed to the Russian gas problem to around 15% of our annual energy requirement.

If we unilaterally withdraw from the European spot market by setting our own artificial gas price, then our Government will have intervened in the free-market. That's like shooting our financial sector in the foot and will seriously damage our reliance on tax revenue from the City as companies withdraw from our banking and insurance services.

But we could instead use our technological expertise to dramatically reduce that 15% exposure.

Electricity grid losses are currently running at around 10%, half of which has occurred in the last 20 years due to incentivising single-phase households to install grid-connect PV (and no matching storage).

Ofgem/BEIS could also reduce their massive grid-enhancement program, and instead we should use (or store) the majority of renewable-energy in the DNO region where it is being generated.

So instead of granting planning permission for a multi-national company to place a data-centre in Oxfordshire or Berkshire, they must do so in South Wales or Cornwall. Both areas already have adequate grid capacity to send electricity in the forwards direction during days without sun/wind. It's running reverse-power through the transformers which is constrained.

This requires Ofgem to ask questions in the right order. Instead of asking Western Power to set a budget for a decade of extensive infrastructure upgrades, you tell Energy Suppliers to issue ToU tariffs based on Regional statistics (ie not National Grid figures).

Then we need the Local Gov Dept (Levelling up) to remove energy-policy from the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). That enables Local Planning Authorities able to determine applications based on their energy footprint. At the moment the developer can ignore such Planning Conditions so long as they build within the NPPF guidelines.

There are solutions available.

@diverted-energy

This is the result of privatising the energy supply industry, which is now controlled by board members of companies that are often foreign owned, along with government policy to force the closure of coal fired and nuclear power stations, and the failure to have a fully integrated renewable sector that has large scale energy storage, to help smooth out the bumps in the road.

There is also the failure to deal with the poor energy efficiency of many of the UK's properties, along with ensuring that heating systems are working at maximum efficiency. 

There are.. My total energy bill for both gas and electricity this year is £205.. I use Air Conditioners  heavily in Summer, Autumn, Winter, Spring. It would have been £750, but government rebates will cover most of it.

We use tumble dryer regulary on warm sunny days as we love freshly washed, soft tumble dried towels and bed sheets. Most days the washer is run twice.

Although, I'm in a fixed EDF deal of 19p and 8p until Sept '24, if they went bust tomorrow that would be capped rate of £120. The next 12 months, 9 months Hot Water is from Solar as was until recently Gas. No Hear Pump as I refuse to spend the money and leave my family wide open to disruption of Gas. The boiler stays!!

Even at that, it's manageable without horrendous hardship. I make no bones about the savings, it is benefits from investment that was a struggle to pay for. A struggle now worth paying every damned penny.

I have no Energy worries and was tipped off that Brexit would rock Interest Rates so fixed with a 10yr, 2.99% deal. Yes, overpaid for 18 months but going to save a fortune in upcoming years.

People are now scrabbling to get out of short term mortgages to refix at today's rates, one kady on Radio4 last, paying £43k to exit a mortgage.

Spoke to a guy on Thursday, his Energy bill is going to £4500 per year but claims £9000 for Solar is too expensive. My head hurts as only so many times one can bang it against a wall. I start to loose sympathy for this attitude.

Tony Blair in 2006 said and predicted this coming, neither himself or any predecessor did anything to protect us. People WILL die this year, suicides, cold, hungry, homeless and government failings are to blame.

We had time to prepare and reduce the reliance that's now hurting us immensely.

I am currently camping and speaking to site owner over the weekend about mitigating costs against renewables. Why, did he not know the benefits?

Education is completely lacking, he'll probably be paying me to get a fully functional battery Solar, Hot Water system with EV Chargers in place. Wales, a place Climate Emergency was declared yet, no encouragement for businesses to change!!

Pure Hot Air..

@transparent

I feel certain you will be surprised to hear that I fully agree with many of your sentiments concerning much better planning of how the grid system is redesigned and operated.

The original grid system was designed around large coal fired power stations in various areas of the country, providing power for the load centres around the country. With the demise of most of the coal fired generation being replaced by renewable's, but invariably not in the same location. As Transparent has pointed out energy flows can often be in the opposite direction to the original design, and hence increase loses within the distribution networks.

Most countries, not just the UK, are suffering from the unreliable supply provided by renewable generation, even hydro schemes are starting to suffer from the effects of global warming. Now is the time for more emphasis to be placed on energy storage, be it in batteries or other methods. It has been calculated that the amount of energy coming to the Earth from the Sun is over 35 million times more than that used by humans, the problem is that we are just so bad at capturing and storing this energy.

Other than try to influence the policy makers, what can we do as individuals.

The first thing would be improved draft proofing, both at home and also help or encourage family and friends who may need assistance. Then improving insulation as much as possible. Also using the cheap secondary glazing over the Winter period wherever possible.

Turn your heating down to an acceptable level if possible.

Next would be trying to ensure electrical equipment is used in the most efficient manner and as little as possible during peak periods. Try to plan use so that you don't switch lots of devices on at the same time.

Consider installing battery storage, even without solar PV, since it is now becoming more cost effective when used with lower priced overnight tariffs. If possible also install solar PV to help reduce the reliance on fossil fuels.

I'm afraid I would not encourage anyone to change their heating system at the moment, since it is impossible to predict what may happen within the global energy market.

If any of you are out of Contract, seriously consider that British Gas detailed above. January is another significant rise, as will be April.

£75 to leave is a gamble worth taking although I doubt you would use it. I locked two family members to Scottish Power in March at 32p and 12p. A bargain compared to October.

I am currently on a campsite with caravanners with gas bottles. I am having complete strangers approaching me asking about winter.

When I show then that on this Sunny day in Rhyl where the wind turbines are only just moving that the UK is drawing 24GW, 4% from Wind, 10% Solar but again, that  at :5:30pm, 67% from Gas.

People have absolutely no idea how much Electricity is from Gas. They honestly believe that its all Renewables from what they hear in the news. Guy I just spoke to said he's on 100% renewable tariff. Then I explained what "Green Washing" is. He is shocked and his words "how the hell do we manage winter".

Told him to take his gas bottles home for winter as they'll likely be stolen, plus they may save his family from freezing.

Are people Comfortably Numb or completely oblivious to what could and will likely happen?

There is complete disconnect from how connected gas is to electricity and the real danger we face.

@derek-m "Consider installing battery storage, even without solar PV, since it is now becoming more cost effective when used with lower priced overnight tariffs."  Who gets these overnight cheap tariffs? I don't and don't qualify. Now with no competition that is highly unlikely unless the government steps in and forces the issue. This is one issue that is stopping me from installing batteries. Economy 7 and 10 are not an option as these are not cost-effective with batteries.

@prjohn

Octopus GO is one of the cheaper overnight tariffs, though if your are not with Octopus you may not be able to switch.

If you have solar PV then battery storage would help you reduce your energy consumption, particularly during the Spring through to Autumn period. Most days during this time of year we are exporting more power than we are importing, so could reduce our electrical usage to zero if we had sufficient battery storage.

@derek-m I do have solar PV but can't justify the poor return on investment, unless I get cheap off peek i.e. octopus GO. I use 1145kwh over the year net. As solar charging is 50% of the year (Scotland) then at today's prices I could look at £250/year saving with battery storage. Ideally, I would want battery storage to aid the Heatpump (3537kwh/year) over the winter months but I would need something like Octopus GO to make this viable. Unfortunately not an option at present.

@prjohn

I too did not find battery storage a cost effective option when I first looked at it quite a few years ago, and as you state without a cheap overnight tariff the payback time is quite lengthy, though shortening with each tariff increase.

I was putting forward ideas and options for consideration and discussion, but would never try to tell anyone what they should or should not do, since I don't know all their details and situation.