Notifications
Clear all

Electricity price predictions

724 Posts
36 Users
498 Reactions
61.9 K Views
Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
Illustrious Member Admin
17642 kWhs
Veteran
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2379
 

We’re part of North Wales & Merseyside — number 1. 

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU
From Zero to Heat Pump Hero: https://amzn.to/4bWkPFb

Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm: https://myhomefarm.co.uk


   
ReplyQuote
Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425
 
Posted by: @derek-m

@jeff

QE, Is that not another way to describe 'live now, pay later', or better still, get someone else to pay later.

The scale of government borrowing would probably have happened anyway IMHO, it is just that the Bank of England bought the debt to stimulate the economy.

Was the scale of QE too high, did it go on too long? Was there a better option than increased borrowing and QE? There are cleverer people than me that could answer that... 


   
ReplyQuote
Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425
 
Posted by: @editor

We’re part of North Wales & Merseyside — number 1. 

You should be able to see what drove such a large increase in your region from the documents on the Ofgem site. 


   
ReplyQuote
Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425
 

Short, easy to read article on some of the recent and proposed ofgem changes

https://www.cityam.com/market-stabilisation-charges-yet-to-be-triggered-confirms-ofgem/


   
Mars and Mars reacted
ReplyQuote
(@prjohn)
Reputable Member Member
563 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 125
 

@jeff The changes to market stabilisation will be detrimental to energy prices. This will make it dearer for new energy providers to start up as they will be paying more to energy companies for switchers (protects energy companies' profits). Thus less competition in prices. What Ofgem is trying to do is make the market more stable thus avoiding popup companies and at the same time protecting profits. The end result will be dearer prices for all. Ofgem is just putting a sticking plaster on a broken model. 


   
Mars and Mars reacted
ReplyQuote
Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425
 
Posted by: @prjohn

@jeff The changes to market stabilisation will be detrimental to energy prices. This will make it dearer for new energy providers to start up as they will be paying more to energy companies for switchers (protects energy companies' profits). Thus less competition in prices. What Ofgem is trying to do is make the market more stable thus avoiding popup companies and at the same time protecting profits. The end result will be dearer prices for all. Ofgem is just putting a sticking plaster on a broken model. 

In case it is helpful 

It is only scheduled to be a short term measure. It expires currently on 30th September. Of course it may be extended or used again in the future. 

It has not currently been triggered. 

I can't personally image many new startups right now, a new start up is unlikely to have sufficient capital for hedging. I doubt it will be the mechanism defering startups between now and 30th September. 

There aren't currently any fixed rates below the current price cap, there is little appetite from any supplier to take on new customers with or without the mechanism. 

The current idea is that it is just a short term sticking plaster that isn't needed beyond a few months. Of course it may be needed longer or at a different time, particularly with the price cap expected to increase in October and January. 

You can track the mechanism reviews on the ofgem site. 

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/market-stabilisation-charge-dashboard#:~:text=The%20Market%20Stabilisation%20Charge%20(MSC,wholesale%20price%20cap%20index1.

 


   
Mars and Mars reacted
ReplyQuote



Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425
 

@transparent 

Interesting tariff. Fixed for cost of the actual gas, variable for the things Scottish Power can't control like government schemes and network costs. So both standing charge and unit cost can be updated every 3 months. 

https://www.scottishpower.co.uk/flexi

Even if you don't like the tariff it gives a example detailed breakdown of costs by region. Would be interesting to combine something like this with a local time of use tariff. 

Screenshot 20220614 132655 com.android.chrome

1

This post was modified 2 years ago by Jeff

   
ReplyQuote
Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425

   
ReplyQuote
Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
Illustrious Member Admin
17642 kWhs
Veteran
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 2379
 

@jeff, we’re dreading this coming winter. We’re making plans to shift living in the southern portion of the house only, moving the TV to the living room where we have our fireplace so we have less spaces to heat. I was hopeful prices would adjust more favourably this summer, but it’s looking like more doom and gloom. 

Buy Bodge Buster – Homeowner Air Source Heat Pump Installation Guide: https://amzn.to/3NVndlU
From Zero to Heat Pump Hero: https://amzn.to/4bWkPFb

Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm: https://myhomefarm.co.uk


   
ReplyQuote
(@mattengineer)
Estimable Member Member
181 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 50
Topic starter  

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 


   
ReplyQuote
Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Noble Member Member
2615 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 425
 
Posted by: @mattengineer

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 

I fear higher than the last cornwall update of £2980 for October and then increasing again in January. 

Wholesale gas is higher since the last cornwall insight update so i think they will increase their estimate again to over £3000 in October and then increasing again in January unless ofgem intervene with some system changes. 

Screenshot 20220630 165517 com.android.chrome

These are the figures for a current ovo fixed rate offer which would be £3050.22 for our post code and typical consumption values. 

Gas unit £0.130000

Gas standing £0.275200

Electric unit £0.423300

Electric standing £0.444400


   
ReplyQuote
(@kev-m)
Famed Member Moderator
5561 kWhs
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 1299
 
Posted by: @jeff
Posted by: @mattengineer

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 

I fear higher than the last cornwall update of £2980 for October and then increasing again in January. 

Wholesale gas is higher since the last cornwall insight update so i think they will increase their estimate again to over £3000 in October and then increasing again in January unless ofgem intervene with some system changes. 

Screenshot 20220630 165517 com.android.chrome

These are the figures for a current ovo fixed rate offer which would be £3050.22 for our post code and typical consumption values. 

Gas unit £0.130000

Gas standing £0.275200

Electric unit £0.423300

Electric standing £0.444400

A gas boiler at 80%, including standing charge, would be beaten by an ASHP with a SCOP of 2.5 at these prices.

I think that's a good thing. The £3k bill to heat your home less so.

 

A lot of people have never even thought about gas heating bills because they've been so cheap.  They will now.     


   
Derek M, Mars, Derek M and 1 people reacted
ReplyQuote



Page 21 / 61
Share:

Join Us!

Latest Posts

Heat Pump T-Shirts

Delta T Sounds Greek to Me

Members Online

 No online members at the moment

x  Powerful Protection for WordPress, from Shield Security
This Site Is Protected By
Shield Security