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Mars
 Mars
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We’re part of North Wales & Merseyside — number 1. 

Caernarfon 18kW ASHP from Global Energy System – 6.16kW solar PV array
Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm
Our heat pump installation: https://youtu.be/c3V0k_GeFOo


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Jeff
 Jeff
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Posted by: @derek-m

@jeff

QE, Is that not another way to describe 'live now, pay later', or better still, get someone else to pay later.

The scale of government borrowing would probably have happened anyway IMHO, it is just that the Bank of England bought the debt to stimulate the economy.

Was the scale of QE too high, did it go on too long? Was there a better option than increased borrowing and QE? There are cleverer people than me that could answer that... 


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Jeff
 Jeff
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Posted by: @editor

We’re part of North Wales & Merseyside — number 1. 

You should be able to see what drove such a large increase in your region from the documents on the Ofgem site. 


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Jeff
 Jeff
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Short, easy to read article on some of the recent and proposed ofgem changes

https://www.cityam.com/market-stabilisation-charges-yet-to-be-triggered-confirms-ofgem/


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prjohn
(@prjohn)
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@jeff The changes to market stabilisation will be detrimental to energy prices. This will make it dearer for new energy providers to start up as they will be paying more to energy companies for switchers (protects energy companies' profits). Thus less competition in prices. What Ofgem is trying to do is make the market more stable thus avoiding popup companies and at the same time protecting profits. The end result will be dearer prices for all. Ofgem is just putting a sticking plaster on a broken model. 


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Jeff
 Jeff
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Posted by: @prjohn

@jeff The changes to market stabilisation will be detrimental to energy prices. This will make it dearer for new energy providers to start up as they will be paying more to energy companies for switchers (protects energy companies' profits). Thus less competition in prices. What Ofgem is trying to do is make the market more stable thus avoiding popup companies and at the same time protecting profits. The end result will be dearer prices for all. Ofgem is just putting a sticking plaster on a broken model. 

In case it is helpful 

It is only scheduled to be a short term measure. It expires currently on 30th September. Of course it may be extended or used again in the future. 

It has not currently been triggered. 

I can't personally image many new startups right now, a new start up is unlikely to have sufficient capital for hedging. I doubt it will be the mechanism defering startups between now and 30th September. 

There aren't currently any fixed rates below the current price cap, there is little appetite from any supplier to take on new customers with or without the mechanism. 

The current idea is that it is just a short term sticking plaster that isn't needed beyond a few months. Of course it may be needed longer or at a different time, particularly with the price cap expected to increase in October and January. 

You can track the mechanism reviews on the ofgem site. 

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/market-stabilisation-charge-dashboard#text=The%20Market%20Stabilisation%20Charge%20(MSC,wholesale%20price%20cap%20index1.

 


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Jeff
 Jeff
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@transparent 

Interesting tariff. Fixed for cost of the actual gas, variable for the things Scottish Power can't control like government schemes and network costs. So both standing charge and unit cost can be updated every 3 months. 

https://www.scottishpower.co.uk/flexi

Even if you don't like the tariff it gives a example detailed breakdown of costs by region. Would be interesting to combine something like this with a local time of use tariff. 

Screenshot 20220614 132655 com.android.chrome

1

This post was modified 2 weeks ago by Jeff

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Jeff
 Jeff
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Mars
 Mars
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@jeff, we’re dreading this coming winter. We’re making plans to shift living in the southern portion of the house only, moving the TV to the living room where we have our fireplace so we have less spaces to heat. I was hopeful prices would adjust more favourably this summer, but it’s looking like more doom and gloom. 

Caernarfon 18kW ASHP from Global Energy System – 6.16kW solar PV array
Follow our sustainability journey at My Home Farm
Our heat pump installation: https://youtu.be/c3V0k_GeFOo


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MattEngineer
(@mattengineer)
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Topic starter  

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 


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Jeff
 Jeff
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Posted by: @mattengineer

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 

I fear higher than the last cornwall update of £2980 for October and then increasing again in January. 

Wholesale gas is higher since the last cornwall insight update so i think they will increase their estimate again to over £3000 in October and then increasing again in January unless ofgem intervene with some system changes. 

Screenshot 20220630 165517 com.android.chrome

These are the figures for a current ovo fixed rate offer which would be £3050.22 for our post code and typical consumption values. 

Gas unit £0.130000

Gas standing £0.275200

Electric unit £0.423300

Electric standing £0.444400


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Kev M
(@kev-m)
Member Moderator
946 kWhs
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 759
 
Posted by: @jeff
Posted by: @mattengineer

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 

I fear higher than the last cornwall update of £2980 for October and then increasing again in January. 

Wholesale gas is higher since the last cornwall insight update so i think they will increase their estimate again to over £3000 in October and then increasing again in January unless ofgem intervene with some system changes. 

Screenshot 20220630 165517 com.android.chrome

These are the figures for a current ovo fixed rate offer which would be £3050.22 for our post code and typical consumption values. 

Gas unit £0.130000

Gas standing £0.275200

Electric unit £0.423300

Electric standing £0.444400

A gas boiler at 80%, including standing charge, would be beaten by an ASHP with a SCOP of 2.5 at these prices.

I think that's a good thing. The £3k bill to heat your home less so.

 

A lot of people have never even thought about gas heating bills because they've been so cheap.  They will now.     


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Transparent
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A high standing charge for gas has another consequence. A household which installs a Heat Pump will most likely also replace its gas cooker (or hob-oven combo), even if they're relatively new and functioning perfectly.

That will undermine progress towards using hydrogen instead of the current methane/propane mix.

The fewer homes with gas, the less resilient is the UK energy supply. The gas network has a very high residual energy in the system. The network would continue to operate for many hours, even if a cyber attack took out all of the country's supply-points.

The electricity grid has zero residual energy. The grid failure just before 5pm on 9th August 2019 presented an immediate threat to the entire country. If the National Grid controller on-duty hadn't sacrificed the distribution network for the east side of England, then we would have lost all electricity for the nation.

There is more to be considered when setting standing charges than just the price.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


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Kev M
(@kev-m)
Member Moderator
946 kWhs
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 759
 

@transparent 

I see what you're saying but the consequences of a catastrophic grid failure are not really anything to do with domestic heating.  And gas won't keep IT/comms systems running. 

Actually I recently had experience of the opposite to your example.   We bought a really nice, nearly new electric range from a couple who had moved into a house with no mains gas and had installed an expensive bottled propane system with proper storage and pipework plus cooker because they preferred cooking on gas!!  

This post was modified 9 hours ago by Kev M

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Jeff
 Jeff
(@jeff)
Active Member
825 kWhs
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 230
 
Posted by: @kev-m
Posted by: @jeff
Posted by: @mattengineer

Given the data available on the projected price cap does anyone have a view on unit costs. 

I think elec 36.5p per kw with a standing charge of 66p and gas 13p per kw and standing charge of 32p.

 

This gets close to Cornwall insights prediction based on average usage of 2900 elec kw and 12000 gas kw.

 

Thoughts? 

I fear higher than the last cornwall update of £2980 for October and then increasing again in January. 

Wholesale gas is higher since the last cornwall insight update so i think they will increase their estimate again to over £3000 in October and then increasing again in January unless ofgem intervene with some system changes. 

Screenshot 20220630 165517 com.android.chrome

These are the figures for a current ovo fixed rate offer which would be £3050.22 for our post code and typical consumption values. 

Gas unit £0.130000

Gas standing £0.275200

Electric unit £0.423300

Electric standing £0.444400

A gas boiler at 80%, including standing charge, would be beaten by an ASHP with a SCOP of 2.5 at these prices.

I think that's a good thing. The £3k bill to heat your home less so.

 

A lot of people have never even thought about gas heating bills because they've been so cheap.  They will now.     

Very true. The increase in cost since early 2021 are eye watering for gas and electricity for many people depending on your tariff and usage. 

For us we use less gas and electric than the ofgem typical consumption values so would pay less than the £3050.22 if we went with the example ovo tariff. I just calculated based on the 12000 gas and 2900 electricity tcv as an example. 

We are regularly away for a few days and a couple of weeks over winter when we usually switch off the gas boiler. The efficiency of our relatively new gas boiler is in theory over 90% but i suspect may not always be that high. Our usage pattern would need some thought with a heat pump but i am sure we are not alone and there is a optimum setup. 

We also know there would be a considerable amount of work to do to the fabric of our old house for a heat pump. 

The running costs for a heat pump for our house are getting closer to mains gas i suspect but i am willing to bet it has not yet reached the tipping point on purely financial grounds without considerable investment. 

The time will come to make the change to our house but it is likely to be the next occupants as we will have moved once my partner retires. The next occupant is very likely to extend the house and it makes sense to make wider changes then. 

We are certainly not in a group struggling to pay for energy, to be honest we really shouldn't be getting the £400 from the government this year. It is pretty poorly targeted IMHO.


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