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Electricity price predictions

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(@derek-m)
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Posted by: @hughf
Posted by: @jeff

@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

Interesting, didn't even know those were a thing. All I know is, we use what we use...

You obviously must have a 'British Standard House' against which you can compare your energy performance, and if the average usage values are set on the low side, this gives everyone the incentive to do better. Otherwise we would all just say 'we use what we use'.


   
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Jeff
 Jeff
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Posted by: @hughf
Posted by: @jeff

@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

Interesting, didn't even know those were a thing. All I know is, we use what we use...

Am not sure how useful they are now, the UK housing stock etc. is so varied. There are separate figures for economy 7 users with no gas. They are used for the cost information that is seen in the press, hence the £1971 for energy at the moment on the price cap for a "typical" user. 

Our figures are 2590.58  for electricity 11498.68 for gas for a 1920s detached house for the last 12 months so it looks like we are pretty typical if ofgem are to be believed in terms of usage, although our house fabric is far from good.... but perhaps our house is typical for the UK at the moment... 

We don't have an EV and rarely have the heating on all day, which just shows how much you can read into the typical figures. 

This post was modified 2 years ago 2 times by Jeff

   
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Majordennisbloodnok
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Posted by: @jeff
Posted by: @hughf
Posted by: @jeff

@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

Interesting, didn't even know those were a thing. All I know is, we use what we use...

Am not sure how useful they are now, the UK housing stock etc. is so varied. There are separate figures for economy 7 users with no gas. They are used for the cost information that is seen in the press, hence the £1971 for energy at the moment on the price cap for a "typical" user. 

Our figures are 2590.58  for electricity 11498.68 for gas for a 1920s detached house for the last 12 months so it looks like we are pretty typical if ofgem are to be believed in terms of usage, although our house fabric is far from good.... but perhaps our house is typical for the UK at the moment... 

We don't have an EV and rarely have the heating on all day, which just shows how much you can read into the typical figures. 

In theory, Ofgem should be in a good position to be able to give these figures with some accuracy; after all, they have access to the raw data. The problem is, though, that an average is only part of the story and it would, of course, be hugely more useful if alongside these figures there was some form of "give or take" figure to provide context of the spread.

I read in another thread here someone posting a rule of thumb that said a typical house uses around 10kWh per day for non-heating electricity usage, and that certainly describes us. However, looking over the past couple of months that figure for us has varied wildly between about 2kWh and 15kWh, so the spread is wide. Once we get a handle on exactly what in our house is causing such intermittent peaks and troughs we could quite possibly cut our non-heating electrical usage by 30-40% (or not at all, depending on the devices). Some people will already have gone through this process and have cut that area of their usage already.

Nonetheless, it suggests that yearly electricity usage figure could be spread pretty wide. +/- 30%? It'd be interesting to see, and I'm sure the energy companies are including that information when calculating their predictions.

 

Posted by: @hughf
Posted by: @jeff

@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

Interesting, didn't even know those were a thing. All I know is, we use what we use...

Realistically, if I thought we use what we use then I'd have given up the whole process of energy improvement as futile. I don't see the typical consumption values as set in stone; I see them as a context by which I can plan and measure.

105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and inverter
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; suus solum profundum variat"


   
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(@hughf)
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Posted by: @jeff
Posted by: @hughf
Posted by: @jeff

@hughf These are the ofgem typical consumption values that all suppliers have to use. 

Number of Bedrooms Yearly Gas Usage (in kWh) Yearly Electricity Usage (in kWh)
1 - 2 8,000 1,800
3 - 4 12,000 2,900
4+ 17,000 4,300

Interesting, didn't even know those were a thing. All I know is, we use what we use...

Am not sure how useful they are now, the UK housing stock etc. is so varied. There are separate figures for economy 7 users with no gas. They are used for the cost information that is seen in the press, hence the £1971 for energy at the moment on the price cap for a "typical" user. 

Our figures are 2590.58  for electricity 11498.68 for gas for a 1920s detached house for the last 12 months so it looks like we are pretty typical if ofgem are to be believed in terms of usage, although our house fabric is far from good.... but perhaps our house is typical for the UK at the moment... 

We don't have an EV and rarely have the heating on all day, which just shows how much you can read into the typical figures. 

Washing machine, dishwasher, tumble dryer (that I ought to replace with a heat pump unit), electric hob, electric oven, EV… It soon adds up. Add to that the heating on most of the day as my wife is often home and feels the cold. I don’t see how we can reduce what we use that much. Cavity walls are blown, loft has 300mm, we have double glazing.

Off grid on the isle of purbeck
2.4kW solar, 15kWh Seplos Mason, Outback power systems 3kW inverter/charger, solid fuel heating with air/air for shoulder months, 10 acres of heathland/woods.

My wife’s house: 1946 3 bed end of terrace in Somerset, ASHP with rads + UFH, triple glazed, retrofit IWI in troublesome rooms, small rear extension.


   
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(@derek-m)
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Hi @majordennisbloodnok

The problem is the people in your home, if you get rid of all the people then the problem will be solved. 😎 


   
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Majordennisbloodnok
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Posted by: @derek-m

Hi @majordennisbloodnok

The problem is the people in your home, if you get rid of all the people then the problem will be solved. 😎 

Or, perhaps, their problem is me.... 

I sometimes wonder how much energy I waste spending time on the computer analysing energy consumption. There be monsters indeed.

105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and inverter
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; suus solum profundum variat"


   
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Transparent
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That need not be viewed as wasted effort @majordennisbloodnok

If you've already got a good grasp on energy statistics for an individual household, why not extrapolate that to a neighbourhood-wide view.

Electricity Aggregators are an important part of delivering the government strategy for Demand Side Response. A good starting point might be the Ofgem website here.

Anyone proposing a group response to lower electricity bills in their area is unlikely to have difficulty recruiting interested parties during the present energy crisis.

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Mars
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I'm still not sure where I stand on the windfall tax. On the one hand you have BP and Shell that made US$10 billion more in profits in the first quarter of this year than last year. They were already profitable last year, so the $10b is on top of their already high profits level. On the other hand you have pensioners riding the bus all day to stay warm. There's a moral imbalance here. 

By my admittedly sketchy maths, and this has little impact on the argument, but BP's and Shell's profits last quarter equated to something like $1,000 per second. 

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(@batalto)
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@editor just a friendly reminder your pension probably is invested into those companies. Not saying they shouldn't have a tax, but most people are investors in them, they just don't realise.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
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(@derek-m)
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@batalto

What people need to remember is that prior to the pandemic the price of each share in Shell was over £25, and this rapidly fell to below £10 per share during 2020. Even now the share price is just below £23 per share, so has still not fully recovered.

What would be interesting to know is how the price of oil and gas increases at each stage through the supply chain, if it turned out that investment bankers were pushing up the price, then that is where windfall taxes should actually fall.


   
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Jeff
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Posted by: @batalto

@editor just a friendly reminder your pension probably is invested into those companies. Not saying they shouldn't have a tax, but most people are investors in them, they just don't realise.

Most UK pensions have little invested and some have completely divested over the years.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/08/windfall-tax-on-oil-giants-wont-hurt-british-pensioners-thinktank-finds

 


   
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(@hughf)
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Posted by: @editor

On the other hand you have pensioners riding the bus all day to stay warm. There's a moral imbalance here. 

 

Not meaning to open a can of worms, but I find it odd that the younger generation don't house and care for their elderly relatives, it would resolve the 'elderly in energy poverty' issue...

Off grid on the isle of purbeck
2.4kW solar, 15kWh Seplos Mason, Outback power systems 3kW inverter/charger, solid fuel heating with air/air for shoulder months, 10 acres of heathland/woods.

My wife’s house: 1946 3 bed end of terrace in Somerset, ASHP with rads + UFH, triple glazed, retrofit IWI in troublesome rooms, small rear extension.


   
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