I've been lurking on the forums for some time, as I've been "almost there" on getting a ASHP to replace our LPG (bottled) gas boiler, which I've always thought was eye-wateringly expensive compared with our last mains gas house. 

Honestly, I'm so glad I haven't got the heat pump looking at these prices. I'll still have to carry the environmental guilt, but at 30p kWh I can't see how the ASHP will be cheaper than even LPG bottles to run (without even taking into account the £10k+ install).

I fear the push to switch people to heat pumps is just going to be buried by running costs at these prices - it was touch and go comparing with mains gas at sensible electricity prices, but now the difference is night and day surely?

@pauldavies83, thanks for sharing. You've made an interesting comparison between electricity and LPG. Our neighbours have LPG, and their fuel price has gone through the roof this winter – when I compared their monthly heating bills versus what our heat pump would be doing on electricity made LPG a far more expensive proposition. 

When compared to mains gas and kerosene, heat pumps are probably a bit more expensive to run at current rates and tariffs.

I just did a quick fag packet calculation and LPG is still a bit more than an ASHP at current prices. Not a lot in it, maybe 13p/kWh LPG and 11p ASHP.  But who knows what will happen with fuel prices.

@editor Maybe I've been a bit pessimistic in my calculations.

We used approx 17386kWh of bottled LPG in the last year, which cost us ~£1,840.00 (so 11p/kWh).

I've assumed a COP of 2.5 for worst case, so the same would roughly cost us £2,086.35 at 30p/kWh @ COP 2.5. These are all very rough numbers, but then adding the £10k+ install into the mix which we'd be paying off for years, it just isn't worth it and even a much more realistic COP couldn't make up for this.

Posted by: @editor

@pauldavies83, thanks for sharing. You've made an interesting comparison between electricity and LPG. Our neighbours have LPG, and their fuel price has gone through the roof this winter – when I compared their monthly heating bills versus what our heat pump would be doing on electricity made LPG a far more expensive proposition. 

When compared to mains gas and kerosene, heat pumps are probably a bit more expensive to run at current rates and tariffs.

Actually, @editor, the kerosene prices I've been seeing - given we recently switched from an oil boiler to ASHP - have also been pretty serious. I can't compare directly since we've also had solar pv and battery installed, but my best guess is that a properly installed and configured ASHP will still be a better proposition to run than an oil boiler, although probably dependent on your area and therefore kerosene price.

Agreed, though, that currently mains gas is winning on the purely financial aspect.

At present, my costs are comparable HP 6.17p and oil approx 6p/kw. Approx COP from HP 3.29

Posted by: @kev-m

I just did a quick fag packet calculation and LPG is still a bit more than an ASHP at current prices. Not a lot in it, maybe 13p/kWh LPG and 11p ASHP.  But who knows what will happen with fuel prices.

Indeed, who knows! 

The one thing about electricity I suppose is that competition drives transparency. LPG is a minefield to buy - we have "negotiated" our bottle price because of 8 years continuous custom.

But I've heard plenty of stories about people with LPG tanks calling Calor for a fill up delivery, and paying 2x what the person 2 doors down paid the week before. 

Those are all valid points @pauldavies83 and your thought process echoes what a lot of people are thinking. Energy pricing needs to be addressed urgently.

@majordennisbloodnok, the price kerosene in our area has been quite constant maybe because we have a lot of farms around us that are dependent on lower prices. But you've raised an interesting point. I received an email this morning from a follower about running costs and I've copied an extract below:

"Although your system seems to have been the right choice for you, and you have highlighted reasons that it may not be right for everyone, where we live these systems are being mis sold. One big confusion is the comparable heating costs. For the last 12-15 years there is an oil company that have massively inflated prices of fuel, customers think the cost of the oil is always high, when it is the oil company inflating the price. We have recently had a situation where oil prices were varying around 48-52ppl but the oil company was charging 74ppl ! The same company charged customers 55ppl when kerosene prices had dropped to 23ppl, so as you can see, sometimes the cost comparison of 2 different energy sources are not always as straight forward as the seem."

The price of kerosene was 52p/litre last week in our area – for our running costs, 50p/litre was roughly equal to electricity at 15-16p/kWh for our ASHP. We're now paying 22p/kWh and that will probably shoot up again in April. If electricity shoots up 30-35p/kWh, kerosene at 50p/litre will be much cheaper to run, but with a significantly worse environmental impact. It's a very challenging time, especially when you're trying to balance environmental sustainability with financial sustainability.

Posted by: @pauldavies83

The one thing about electricity I suppose is that competition drives transparency. LPG is a minefield to buy - we have "negotiated" our bottle price because of 8 years continuous custom.

But I've heard plenty of stories about people with LPG tanks calling Calor for a fill up delivery, and paying 2x what the person 2 doors down paid the week before. 

Totally agree. There's absolutely no technical reason why LPG tank has to be supplier-specific, but it does mean the customer is completely at the mercy of the supplier's varying prices. When we moved into our current house a little under a decade ago, I discounted a move to LPG from oil purely on that point.

I'd better stop on that rabbit-hole in case I start getting on my soapbox.

I think the absolute immediate priority needs to be helping those already in or about to go into genuine fuel poverty however that is measured.

Posted by: @editor

@majordennisbloodnok, the price kerosene in our area has been quite constant maybe because we have a lot of farms around us that are dependent on lower prices. But you've raised an interesting point. I received an email this morning from a follower about running costs and I've copied an extract below:

"Although your system seems to have been the right choice for you, and you have highlighted reasons that it may not be right for everyone, where we live these systems are being mis sold. One big confusion is the comparable heating costs. For the last 12-15 years there is an oil company that have massively inflated prices of fuel, customers think the cost of the oil is always high, when it is the oil company inflating the price. We have recently had a situation where oil prices were varying around 48-52ppl but the oil company was charging 74ppl ! The same company charged customers 55ppl when kerosene prices had dropped to 23ppl, so as you can see, sometimes the cost comparison of 2 different energy sources are not always as straight forward as the seem."

The price of kerosene was 52p/litre last week in our area – for our running costs, 50p/litre was roughly equal to electricity at 15-16p/kWh for our ASHP. We're now paying 22p/kWh and that will probably shoot up again in April. If electricity shoots up 30-35p/kWh, kerosene at 50p/litre will be much cheaper to run, but with a significantly worse environmental impact. It's a very challenging time, especially when you're trying to balance environmental sustainability with financial sustainability.

@Editor, very interesting indeed. Where I am in leafy South East England, the best oil price I can find right now is 60.99ppl ex vat.

When we first moved into this house, we inherited a good and loyal ordering history with one particular supplier - Watson Fuels - from the previous occupants. As a result, we continued with them for a while since I had other more urgent matters than researching oil prices. Back in October 2020, however, we were being quoted around £700 to refill our tank (1000 litres), so I looked around a bit and found Homefuels direct would supply us with the same product for £304.40 including the 5% tax (28.99ppl). I was astounded at the difference and rang Watson's up to see what they had to say, and their comment was "if you're able to get it at that price, I'd advise you to take it"! I did exactly that, and continued with online suppliers from that point until we ripped out the oil boiler and got our ASHP.

Certainly there was a big dip in the market at that point, but less than half the price is a big differential. There seems to be a very real lack of transparency and consistency in the market and, as usual, the quiet loyal consumers are the ones who get the raw deal. If oil prices - even best for the area - are so high compared with other parts of the country, no wonder it's been easy for us to justify the running costs of an ASHP with high electricity prices.