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Electricity price predictions

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Transparent
(@transparent)
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The Chair of Parliamentary Standing Committees is allocated by party affiliation on a rota.
Nominations are now open for the Chair of the new committee to oversee the Dept of Energy, who must be a member of the SNP.

 

.... and Octopus has just announced a fall in price per kWh for those on the Go tariff.

Daytime rate falls from 43.5p /kWh (incl 5% VAT) to 40.2p
Cheap-rate (00:30-04:30) falls from 12p to 9.5p

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@drew-pa)
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Talk about comedy timing!  

that’s a good sign. I’m starting to see that Octopus are leaders, hopefully others will follow(quickly)


   
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Transparent
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Having an SNP Chair to that committee might bring a different perspective.
Scotland has had a substantial dependence on renewable generation of electricity a lot longer than the rest of GB.
Not only do they have large scale hydro, but also areas which effectively operate off-grid, such as Scoraig.

Orkney has control over its own network, and generates over 120% of its electricity requirement from renewable sources.

And yet Scottish consumers pay a high standing charge for their electricity because they're remote from the National Grid.

If the Chair properly understands the irregularities being imposed on the energy market by holding on to antiquated practices, then they could produce some challenging questions for CEOs of companies in the energy sector.

Whether they'll attain to the depth of knowledge and astute chairmanship of Darren Jones MP is another matter.
He was being actively supplied with information by whistle-blowers from within the industry.

 

As for Octopus, yes they are far ahead of the other licensed energy suppliers, particularly in regard to offering a range of ToU tariffs.
That's possibly because they still have the visionary who started the company at the helm.

The ability of a supplier to offer ToU tariffs comes down to the software development of their in-house billing system.

Octopus' software is called Kraken and also has the ability to control 'smart' devices such as EV chargers.

It's not perfect, but Ofgem seems pretty happy with its adherence to the licence conditions.

The OVO Group also have billing software under development in-house by their Kaluza division.
But however good the code is, they've made some incorrect assumptions about the way in which smart meters work.
If the incoming data isn't reliable enough, then you end up having to implement software 'fixes' to get the billing right.

You can go down that path for so long, but eventually you come unstuck.
It's a situation I discussed with their CEO, who promised I'd be the very first customer to use the new ToU tariff.
The deadline came and went.
Weeks turned into months.
A year later I ceased being a customer. I absolutely had to be on a ToU tariff to undertake the R&D project for off-grid storage which I'm currently running.

This post was modified 1 year ago by Transparent

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Morgan
(@morgan)
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@Transparent ToU?

Retrofitted 11.2kw Mitsubishi Ecodan to new radiators commissioned November 2021.


   
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Transparent
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Apologies. I do try to interpret TLAs (three letter abbreviations) on the first occasion I mention them in a post. I slipped up this time.

ToU is Time of Use.

In domestic energy supply it is generally understood to be a tariff in which the price changes in periods of 30mins.
A Smart Meter divides the day into 48 tariff-slots.
That's why our daily usage on Apps is usually presented as a histogram:

image

A ToU Tariff applies different prices for tariff-slots during a 24-hour period.

Here's the price-points for Octopus' Agile Tariff (SE England region) over the past 3 days:

image

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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(@diverted-energy)
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@editor I heard once the currently extended EPG runs out there is a slight drop prior to rising again October according to Cornwall Insights. 50p per kwh has been suggested next Winter.

Seen as though I apparently talk "hot-air", the only hot air I've had is the Air to Air and oil heaters running from the batteries and direct from the Sun during the day at almost zero cost.

Gas boiler run once in last three weeks for 75mins throttled to 8kwh so peanuts to boost the house later at night. As for Standing Order on gas, mains is being disconnected later this year as the amount we use for hot water and heating the last 12months is equivalent to 6x 47kg bottles of LPG. New boiler going in running on LPG as they can stick Standing Charges where the sun doesn't shine. The savings after next increase will almost cover the cost of 2x bottles each year, leaving 4x to buy at £75 each (£300 per year).

All without spending £17,000 and reliance on a Air to Water Heat Pump and putting expensive Winter Energy with little Solar through it. The calculations don't add up except for many years payback- as for saving the planet, yes we've had good Winter wind harvests this year but Summer electricity will again be generated from 55%-75% Gas again so that's an untruth. 

Currently generating 30+ kwh per day here in the North West, plenty of Air to Air power, hot water and 6 to 10kwh to car each day.

Total Energy cost from September until March £510 of which government paid £400, so excluding Standing Charges of around £90 - I think £110 for 6 months Winter Energy is very amicable to me.

Did someone mention energy crisis?

Don't dismiss burning a little Winter Gas and installing much cheaper Air to Air against the cost of Heat Pumps - oh no, he's slated the precious Heat Pump again

- how dare he!

This post was modified 1 year ago by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@tim441)
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surely a significant guide is the Octopus Tracker rate? That's based on wholesale prices - daily rates.

The Tracker has been significantly under EPG since Jan 1st and ave is around 22p inc vat. While tracker is unlikely to be matched by fixed contracts at that level I would expect standard tariffs to drop significantly ... and even fixed contracts to be offered at significantly lower prices than currently.

A reminder to get on Tracker waiting list! Its currently around 6 months - just in time for next winter. No commitment so if prices spike you can move again on one day notice.

 

 

 

Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS


   
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Transparent
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The newly-elected chair of the Parliamentary Standing Committee overseeing the Dept of Energy Security and Net Zero is Angus MacNeil MP, who represents Na h-Eileanan an Iar or "Western Isles", otherwise known as the Outer Hebrides.

Along with Martin Bell MP, in 2006 he challenged then PM, Tony Blair, over the cash for honours scandal. Most likely as a result of this, his parliamentary career has suffered from personal attacks and security incidents. In other words, he rattled the gates of some very influential people.

Na h-Eileanan an Iar is the smallest constituency in the UK, currently regarded as a safe SNP seat.

The Outer Hebrides is home to an innovative Community Energy Hub, which uses fish waste as fuel for an anaerobic digester.

Other members of the Committee have yet to be announced. We will then learn which issues they decide to tackle.

This post was modified 1 year ago 3 times by Transparent

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Abernyte
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Ahem.. Na h-Eileanan an Iar is the smallest constituency in the UK, 

It has the smallest electorate but is not the smallest constituency in the UK parliament, but Angus is a great choice in that role.


   
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Transparent
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Are you a constituent @abernyte ?

Whatever posts they're in, MPs can only act on matters they are aware of.
In a democracy we all have a responsibility to ensure that relevant information is forwarded to those in power.

Darren Jones MP (BEIS Standing Committee chair) instigated a mechanism whereby he could be contacted by whistle-blowers within the energy sector.
How will Angus and the other committee members hear of the sort of important issues we often discuss within this forum?

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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Abernyte
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No, he is not my MP but he has a good and fearless record and will be open to communication via his office, I am sure.


   
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(@tim441)
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For good order... there are strict rules on contacting MPs.

Basically afaik you have to go through your own MP... who should contact ministers or others as necessary if they need such input.

Listed Grade 2 building with large modern extension.
LG Therma V 16kw ASHP
Underfloor heating + Rads
8kw pv solar
3 x 8.2kw GivEnergy batteries
1 x GivEnergy Gen1 hybrid 5.0kw inverter
Manual changeover EPS


   
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