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Electricity price predictions

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Mars
 Mars
(@editor)
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Next predictions. How many years is it going to take before electricity prices drop again to ‘acceptable’ levels? Octopus Energy reckon two years, and will we ever see electricity at 15p/kWh again?

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(@diverted-energy)
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@editor 3yr to 4yr.. and ONLY if government pulls it fingers out and massively invests in Renewables, both on private roofs and big projects.

The losses in the retail Energy market is massive, the cap is historical pricing and the next 6 month isn't looking great.

Even at CAP rates, I am not aware of any making substantial profit to repair what's gone. 

For as long as there is gas in the Electricity mix, this isn't going away anytime soon. Russia is preparing for a long-haul.

The EU is not getting the gas to store for winter thanks to press reporting what we do to mitigate.

Energy should be a Top Secret National Security issue across the EU and the UK. I believe that the press has allowed too much information out and alone, put bills up by £2000. Russia is weaponising gas, so why do we keep showing our cards?

Announcing extra being taken from Norway to EU Storage- Russia responds by removing 20% more flow.

Announcing a big LNG ship heading here from Australia to fill up EU Storage- Russia's response, completely shut off NORD STREAM1 for 3 days - about the same quantity of gas that ships carrying.

News Blackout on such stories, it's irresponsible.

These things should be done quietly and there might have been a chance.

We need to get through this Winter. I picked up three more 47kg Propane today, that's the 6th and enough to run boiler for 12months. The guy asked why I needed three, he looked a little worried after I explained.

Two gas fires due here tomorrow.

2pm today, UK was pulling 22GW, 52% from gas - do people still honestly believe that "robust and diverse Global beating Energy system" will work during winters 35GW-40GW demand at 70% - not a chance.

Johnson needs to step up to his Downing St podium and start telling us some honest truths. Telling like in '74, we need to start preparing. I was 4 years old and remember it clearly being cold in front of paraffin heaters and Tilly lamps. One vivid memory was seeing my dad light the heaters and one night, my parents faces when walking into the room after I'd lit them and didn't trim the wicks. Room full of thick, black, soot.

Just like the COVID failures and in January being told it was no more than a bad cold. Loss of energy is life threatening to an extent beyond a pandemic. Another public enquiry in 2 years time! Excess deaths from cold..


Wait until April before you call me crazy, I was right with 12% last Oct, 50% in April and told I was scaremongering at around 80% this Oct. The figures don't add up, to put our reliance on gas from the EU who will also be freezing due to lack of supply. Germany is already outbidding us on Spot-Market, driving prices higher and limiting availability.

Gut feeling Jan will be 40%, April another 20% then it may fall, but only if mitigation starts and I've seen nothing as yet.

 

This post was modified 2 years ago 2 times by Diverted.Energy

   
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(@mattengineer)
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@editor I don’t personally think that electricity will ever be 15p per unit again. If gov can pull together their support mechanism peak will be funded over a longer period which could see artificially high rates for a decade. 

Just had a look at ofgem website and elec is 52p per unit, standing charge of 46p and gas 15p standing charge of 28p.

Completely agree with everything diverted has said in terms of next year and making preparations. 

 

 

 


   
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @editor

Next predictions. How many years is it going to take before electricity prices drop again to ‘acceptable’ levels? Octopus Energy reckon two years, and will we ever see electricity at 15p/kWh again?

I agree with Octopus.  I also don't think we'll see 15p again any time soon though. Nothing to do with government investment as that's longer term. A combination of Europe being off Russian gas and reduced demand.  Demand for domestic gas is also going to reduce this winter for obvious reasons.     


   
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Mars
 Mars
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Just looked briefly at the OFGEM tariffs for Oct to Dec. What’s happened to the direct debit? It’s just other payment, standard credit and prepayment.

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(@diverted-energy)
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I wrote to our Energy Secretary in May in respect to Condensing Gas Boilers being cowboy fitted without restricting output to match the property.

This means 92% plus efficiency can never be met, after going to Cornwall in a static caravan to see the LPG boiler there set to max 26kw output driving 3kw worth of radiators. Assuming 350x boilersbon that site are consuming 20% more and dumped straight out the flue.

Speaking to manufacturers and training providers  there is an assumption of 80% to 90% of the 26 million boilers in the UK are unnecessary consuming 20% additional gas to waste.

I wrote to highlight this to change manufacturers default settings to stop this.

Did I get a reply - NOTHING..

 

 


   
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(@george)
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The further rise in January is going to be brutal.

Mitsubishi Ecodan 14kw ASHP + 500l Cylinder


   
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 robl
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@diverted-energy 

In our unusual resource constrained situation, I can't see a helpful way to avoid energy being expensive.  If taxes are reduced, a little more can be afforded, so the price will just rise I think.  If prices are fixed too low, more companies will go bust, perhaps we will run out and have blackouts.

We can rearrange who pays the most for energy though - it doesn't have to be proportionally most expensive for low energy users due to the standing charge.  We could give a small amount of energy out free to people, allowing the unit cost even higher hitting high users who are likely better off with bigger houses.  I suppose the govt. is sort of doing this with handouts, even better if they target them.  Polly Toynbee says it better:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/21/people-struggling-pay-energy-bills-help


   
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(@chickenbig)
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Posted by: @diverted-energy

3yr to 4yr.. and ONLY if government pulls it fingers out and massively invests in Renewables, both on private roofs and big projects.

Being more permissive of onshore wind in England, as well as solar farms, would be a good step. But these will only ease the gas used to run power stations (and not ease peak demand).

Better insulation, especially in rented accommodation (where one presumes not so much effort has gone into reducing outgoings), would reduce peak demand. And as you say elsewhere, more appropriate efficient boilers might shave N% off peak consumption.

A government with longer-term vision might consider training up and employing a workforce to insulate homes and install renewables to meet net zero before 2050. Many aspects of these jobs are not rocket science, but to do it well takes training (and a head for heights). With youth unemployment over 10%, and full time jobs hard to come by, isn't it time to invest in people. Who believes the ECO program delivers value for money, and if not then why not?

 


   
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(@prjohn)
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There is a general consensus that the war in Ukraine is the cause of our problems, but this is only part of the problems. The major cause of our energy crisis is government inaction and choice. 

All our gas production is sold on the open markets and subject to the demands worldwide, we can if so decide to bring our gas on shore to be sold locally within the UK avoiding free markets. This can bring down the cost average of gas by using it to balance the high imported gas. 

Energy storage is stagnant. At present Scotland has passed planning on numerous pump storage facilities but they can't go ahead as no funding is available. One such planned storage is at Ben Cruachan which after completion will be able to provide power to 1 million homes. This type of energy storage would go a long way to provide energy security. This is now a long-term solution. Quicker energy storage solutions can be developed such as batteries but we see no big developments or any incentive to encourage homeowners to install batteries. This could be actioned immediately and by providing cheap off-peak charging can contribute to energy security. 

We also know that electricity prices are made up of environmental and social taxes, the government can simply move this to general taxation. Thus immediately benefiting those that are receiving the social benefit via other means. Environmental charges also benefit wind generators who get paid for energy not used as there is too much in the grid. This cost should be transferred to ensure energy security. Other costs which I see as none essential are local community fees that wind generators pay to local communities, for us we receive approx £3,000/annum (approx 500houses). The green certificate should also be abolished as an unnecessary charge. 

We are also aware of how our energy network is inefficient, yet we see no urgent moves to improve the system. There is a big difference between the cheapest and dearest energy production. Electricity prices are dictated by the dearest commodity and that is GAS. We should shift to average pricing as an immediate solution, the government has the power to do that NOW. This would immediately lower prices. In the short term, we should move to local pricing where energy prices are dictated by local energy production. This would allow the government to target funding where needed most. 

Some of what has been suggested could have been done over the last 6mths it hasn't. Other ideas can be instigated now, we're waiting. Others with a bit of willpower can be done in a shorter period. But ultimately we are here because of government choice. The flood of overseas cheap gas allowed them to make that choice and sacrifice energy security.

Just as an afterthought we spend billions upon billions of pounds on the armed forces to protect our country but what good is that if we have no energy security?


   
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(@chickenbig)
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Posted by: @robl

In our unusual resource constrained situation, I can't see a helpful way to avoid energy being expensive. 

Some sort of pricing transparency would be a good start. Yesterday morning I tried to trace what wholesale price actually meant. See

 section 2.4. ICIS Heren is a Price Reporting Agency and of course the published numbers have, in the past, been subjected to price manipulation   https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/may/08/price-reporting-agency-boycott . Much like libor, and energy markets in California. The presence of partial reporting, international trade and a state willing to use economic muscle makes things … .


   
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Transparent
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Posted by: @prjohn

We are also aware of how our energy network is inefficient, yet we see no urgent moves to improve the system.

I have been discussing the network losses with Western Power Distribution (WPD) over the past 4 years - a conversation which commenced with the Ofgem-funded OpenLV project. 80 local substations had full monitoring installed and were assigned to three groups of people

  • commercial trials by WPD
  • academic studies
  • community groups

When the initial Ofgem funding ceased, WPD retained 2 smart substations for themselves, and all of those being monitored by seven community groups. New equipment was installed and the system remains active. That's how I first detected the system losses due to phase imbalance.

PhaseImbalance

There are moves to reduce losses on our energy networks. They are implemented via agreements between the network operators and Ofgem called RIIO. We are almost at the end of RIIO-ED1; that's E for electricity, D for Distribution network (ie 132kV and below), and 1 for phase-1. That phase concentrated on replacement of old/inefficient equipment.

RIIO-ED2 is now published and is more directed at reducing the technical losses - ie excluding theft!

DNOs have Innovation Departments and can obtain funding for joint projects with external organisations or individuals. This is important because DNOs and National Grid are themselves restricted by the nature of their Ofgem licences. For example they may not own or control electricity generation or storage assets.

If technically-minded readers on this Forum have ideas as to how the UK can reduce network losses, then the doors are open for you to get stuck in!

As a 'starter' can I point out that domestic heat-pumps are renowned for causing losses due to harmonics. Surely the Renewable Heating Hub must have a few techies, retired or amateur, who could start discussing solutions to that.

33kV losses label

We are not entirely helpless in combating these energy-cap rises.

This post was modified 2 years ago by Transparent

Save energy... recycle electrons!


   
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