https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/russia-kremlin-graham-ofgem-government-b1014999.html

£3850 price cap for January? (That is based on a typical consumption of 12000kWh gas and 2900kWh electricity) 

That's double the current cap of £1971

Also fascinating to hear some of the potential policies of our two potential tory prime ministers. 

- Pro fracking

- Not supporting Onshore wind farms

- Thinking of scrapping the Boiler upgrade scheme to heat pumps, and replacing it with a scheme for insulation

- Temporary cut in VAT from 5% to 0%

- Move the green levy from energy bills to general taxation 

From my estimates my new bill should be around £1400 at 7.5p off peak and 39p on peak with octopus Go. Up from the current bill this year of £800

Latest predictions

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/price-cap-to-remain-significantly-above-3000-a-year-until-at-least-2024/

They have been accurate in the past

Posted by: @batalto

From my estimates my new bill should be around £1400 at 7.5p off peak and 39p on peak with octopus Go. Up from the current bill this year of £800

Just shows what a good investment your setup has been including making use of the pricing anomalies of Octopus GO which is subsidised by Octopus.

This is my 12 months to date with the horrible but cheap fossil fuels.£755 for the year. Cheap due to a fixed rate. But the next 12 months will be a huge increase unlike your more manageable increase

They are accurate, they use the same data and algorithms OFGEM use. Although, OFGEM calculate 'after the event', so there us a little but not a lot of crystal ball involved.

When Martin Lewis was predicting 22% based on data at the time, it was obvious the final result, especially with Germany and the rest of the EU Winter plans being shot to pieces and way off.

I have been right based on these predictions as I said 55% in April, there is still more to play before it is announced but don't be surprised at 70-75% increases.

The elephant in the room is the quantity of electricity being produced from Gas, 70% during the Euro match last week, regularly 55% to 65% and without, there is not much grid to charge those cars and drive Heat Pumps and electric heaters.

DNO's are not going to come connect generation equipment to sub stations during blackouts, especially rolling ones and brown-outs. Generators will be prioritised to critical infrastructure such as pump stations, water treatment and not domestic power.

People need to be planning independently for extended periods without power, whether this be battery, generator (with fuel) and at least a portable Calor Gas heater.

I am currently at our caravan and the gas bottles, camping stoves are coming back with us, plus anything else useful for power outage.

Electric blankets at 50 watts consumption could be a lifesaver in that it is possible to get warm for not a lot of power input. Obviously, these need a power supply.

I spoke to my local Conservative Councillor in March, predicting these events, he laughed at me.

Many people may not be laughing this winter. Don't forget, water supply will also go off during blackouts.

Dried food such as rice/pasta

Bottled water

Calor Heater and bottles

Torches

Battery banks for phone charging

I have LPG on stand-by to switch from Grid Gas should it be an issue.

Personally, I think we're in for a Winter we've never experienced since the 70s, maybe worse as the government has spent years underfunding our national infrastructure allowing it to collapse. TV transmission Tower fire last year, 3 months to fix as no spare parts!!

I hope I'm wrong, but planning in case I'm correct.

@jeff its mostly the summer which is crazy. I used 115kwh with my heat pump this July. Last July I used 1100kw of gas. Given my current gas price would be 7.29p per kwh that would be £80 alone just in hot water. I paid £15 this month total including standing charges. At those rates my Feb 2020 gas bill (8457kw) would be £616 on its own, 2021 (5493kw) it would have been £473. In comparison in Feb 2022 I used 909kw for my ASHP, so less than 1/5 of the previous 2 years. Jan 2022 was 1500kw though as I guess Feb was quite mild?

I feel like this year the cold months are going to come like vengeance. Luckily due to the summer I have a buffer of over £600 in credit and we've still got Aug and Sept to go. Plus of course the £400 credit from the govt. I've also doubled my batteries from 14kw to just under 30kwh of storage. The payback is about 3 years at these rates. Honestly I cant see power prices dropping any time soon. Regardless I feel as prepared as I can be.

The only other thing I could do is sell my valuable Pylontech batteries (worth about £5k at these market prices) and build another 2 DIY batteries giving me 45kwh of total storage - it would be cost neutral as I can build a 15kwh battery for around £2500.

@diverted-energy I have to disagree to a certain extent. 100% they will prioritise domestic over everything else except very critical infrastructure. No way will any government stand for "my gran froze to death in a blackout". Heavy industrial users will be paid to turn off.

- See page 9.

The biggest user of gas over winter is absolutely heating and not electricity. I would expect with these prices to see a huge dip in that demand as people turn down the thermostats. There will be gas - but at what price.

In winter, short dark cloudy days, calm winds.

Remove 65-70% of the total Gas generation capacity,. That leaves around 10GW? Nighttime in summer, 22Gw, Summer daytime peak 33Gw  that's at a tine of year when we are at lowest demand, in the muddle of winter?

Where is that going to go? Nowhere near enough, as many without gas will try to use electric heaters, heat pumps, car charging. The UK can't supply 50% of its Sumner needs, without gas.

Noticed coal is running constantly at 1Gw, 24 hours per day, it used to be peak only. Then the EU Interconnects as if they're short of generation themselves, little will be heading our way.

They might try to prioritise, but you can't give what's not available to begin with.

You say there will be gas, there may not be capacity in the system, there is a single pipe running from Norway, what if there was an 'accident'? Like Texas a few weeks ago?

What if Germany outbid us on LNG?

As for Gran, many Gran's died of COVID in Care Homes and not much was said and the government is still in power. 'Unfortunately, it was unforseen and beyond our control".

So, we'll see..

Further to, rather than priorities on domestic heating with risks of people charging batteries, cars, running heat pumps overloading what's available.

It'll more than likely be to drop Gran and any other family member off at a local heated School hall, Leasure Centre or "Welcome Place" as communal heating is more energy efficient per person.

We've plans for family to move in with us, 40kwh batteries being ordered next week and hopefully they'll be here in time, LPG for boiler and portable LPG heaters. Currently tanks are being installed for diverted Solar. One has a Solar coil, this is going to be piped to the log burner in the garden and use a differential pump system to transfer heat to tank, central heating  and Hot Water.

We've also a 6 berth, 6 metre caravan that this year is going into storage nearer home as it is easier to stay warm in there, than a house if needed. Daughter will be sent on family Visa to Australia if deemed best option for her.

We've never faced a winter with deliberate attempts to starve the UK and EU of gas, with no UK gas being held in Europe's storages as we dismantled our storage facilities years ago.

There has been no prior experiences learnt, no playbook, no one knows what may happen, so if it does happen - it will be chaos.

One thing I do know, Putin won't care about Granny freezing to death and government planning is lacking and the worse it is, the better in his eyes that we'll submit and stop sending support to Ukraine.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best

I'll be over the moon if next April, I am told I over reacted. Unfortunately, numerous times in the past, my hair brained,  crackpot ideas have become reality.

Getting it wrong this time could be family freezing.

There is an article in the Daily Telegraph today about gas supply and usage etc now and over winter just in case anyone is interested. 

Probably more balanced than usual for the Daily Telegraph, depending on your political leaning. 

The Press Reader app is quite good if you don't use it already. With my library card i can use the app for free to read quite a lot of magazines and newspapers.

I won't post the contents of the article due to copyright. 

Just read this worrying article that these crazy prices could be around until 2024.

https://apple.news/AhYoIIgZBTvGofxOoO0EBlw

@editor has petrol ever gone down more than a few pence? On the whole, its always up..

Days of cheap energy are over..

2024 is dependent on gas supply, renewables and nuclear installation, currently there are no plans ever to reintroduce Russian gas into the EU. Russia is the new N Korea and will be isolated for years, even decades and this is a strain on supply.

I installed Solar at 4.5p/kwh, people laughed at me, told me not to waste money on a fantasy, where I said one day you'll regret these words. Today they face crippling bills as they refused to listen to me. People laugh when I say what may be coming in Winter - until I explain the Energy Mix issue where they turn pale.

There is a disconnect between gas and electricity, and how much now expensive gas is used to produce it.

I managed to get two elderly relatives onto 2year Scottish Power deals in March where again, Martin Lewis, local energy advisers were saying not to.

They'll lose £200 against the capped rate April until October but they're protected against the next two Winters saving already £1500 each against predictions until April '24.

The ONLY way to protect yourself from current and future events is simple - stop buying it and make abd use your own. I'll set up post on petition at weekend as on holiday.

I'm currently camping, there are a lot of LPG gas bottles being taken home this Autumn that would normally be left in stored caravans over winter - seems people do actually listen to me.