it should be noted that Octopus Agile Outgoing average prices in Sept last year was around 30p (with quite a big range of prices) when the Fixed rate was set at 15p.

Octopus Agile Outgoing average prices since start of 2023 started around 15p and have steadily fallen - current average is under 10p.

The chances must be high that the Fixed rate (currently 15p, fixed 1 year) will be cut in the not so distant future. I would suggest we could see that drop to somewhere between the previous 7.5p and 10p? Perhaps also impacting Flux export rates too?

Obviously no certainty over future prices but would simply suggest its important to regularly review the tariff(s) you're on for both import and export.

Import Tracker prices are made up of Wholesale price that typically accounts for around just under the cost current. Remainder is made up of things like Network, Distribution, VAT, Social & Environmental etc.

So with the base Wholesale price near 8p it's unlikely that Octopus will continue paying 15p for export?

Today's Octopus Tracker breakdown of costs

@tim441 thanks for posting this - very interesting. I'm an expat living Italy and I'd be interested to know what additional charges appear on a UK bill these days, in addition to the (consumption x unit price) + standing charge? Is there VAT on top of that? I like to compare what we're paying here with the UK and I think the only way of doing that is to divide the total cost of my bill by my consumption to produce a 'bill price' per kWh - i.e., what I pay on my bill for each kWh once charges and taxes are applied. Out of interest - for anyone interested in the way Italian bills work...and I'm not sure that's a huge audience - we pay the monthly average of the daily wholesale cost, which obviously changes every month, and then various charges and taxes are applied. The wholesale cost of what we consume for us has ended up being around 44% to 58% of the bill this year to date. For instance, last month (April) the wholesale cost was 14c (about 12p), but dividing my total bill including all taxes and charges by my kWh consumption gave a 'bill price' of 31c (about 27p) per kWh. In March, that figure was around 26c (23p), and in February 28c (24p).

@marzipan71 we have a separate base "standing" charge that you can see in the Octopus breakdown above. In my case 42.77p per day - which is more or less typical. Standing charges are regulated as well. They've gone up a lot as well - I think partly to cover all the losses the gov took for the distributor companies that were forced takeovers.

In that helpful Octopus graphic above you can see how all the costs breakdown.... and includes vat. The base wholesale price is just 8.2p but lots of defined add ons too.

Because I have ashp my winter usage is huge.. but summer with solar panels & batteries is negative.

I'm hoping to get my net annual usage down towards 5000kwh. With Octopus Tracker hopefully sub 20p kwh as an average for the year ...perhaps even including vat & standing charges..

Hi @tim441 thanks for the reply and info, great stuff. We also have a 16kW ASHP and 6.1kWp of solar, UFH etc in a 300 sq m property - but no batteries! Our winter usage is also huge - we consume around 10k kWh per year of grid electricity and half of that is Nov - Feb, when the weather where we are is pretty similar to the south of England. We produce around 8MWh solar a year and send around 40% to the grid - we get paid (as far as I can work out) the wholesale price, while we buy at wholesale price + charges and taxes.

I actually just went on to the Octopus UK site and hadn't realised they could give me a quote based upon consumption (9500 kWh) using my old UK postcode in Herts, which using their (presumed) standard tariff is below. Really interesting to understand how this breaks down so thanks for the graphic above.

@marzipan71 interesting!

But note with Octopus Tracker (currently 6 month waiting list) we pay around 18p kwh Inc vat currently vs the gov capped 33.98p. So over 40% saving!

And if you're able to sell at their current fix 15p kwh... net costs would be very different!

Hi @tim441 yes that tracker rate looks great, what a saving! No wonder there is a wait list! 

Using my April consumption this year, the Octopus standard rate and the tracker rate would be 144 and 82 gbp respectively; while I paid 105 (gbp equivalent). That's today of course - and given the newspaper headlines in the UK today it looks like there's a fall in prices imminent.