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Electricity price predictions

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(@prjohn)
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563 kWhs
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@jeff  "however that is measured" Interesting comment especially when those with heat pumps could be paying over £2000 more from April.This type of increase also devalues your salary putting a lot of homes into poverty, not just fuel poverty.


   
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(@mattengineer)
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Topic starter  

Interesting that octopus go has gone from 5p between 00:30 - 04:30 to 7.5p and outside of these hours from 25.08p to 31.42p and an increase in the standing charge. 

Electrictricity price cap 21.43p per kwh, assuming cop 3x = 7.14p

LPG in my area is 11.4p per kwh
Heating oil in my area is 61.33p per litre or 5.92p per kWh 
Gas at present is 4.15p per kWh (capped and expected to rise)

Fundamentally Derek_M hit the nail on the head regarding insulation investment first. LPG, Oil and Mains gas can all reach high flow temps c75 degrees whilst maintaining a greater than 90% efficiency. A heat pump needs c45-50 degrees to hit a cop of 3 (estimates). 


   
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(@peterr)
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Posted by: @majordennisbloodnok

Totally agree. There's absolutely no technical reason why LPG tank has to be supplier-specific, but it does mean the customer is completely at the mercy of the supplier's varying prices. When we moved into our current house a little under a decade ago, I discounted a move to LPG from oil purely on that point.

I'd better stop on that rabbit-hole in case I start getting on my soapbox.

LPG tanks can now be switched between suppliers.  We were originally with Calor when we first moved here 14 years ago, and then switched to Avanti a couple of back.  Tank maintenance gets transferred from one supplier to the other.

There is a price comparison site at LPG Compare that enables you to compare suppliers in your area.

We have a 2000 litre underground tank that is now just serving our gas hob.  It was last filled up in May, and is currently sitting at about 65% full.  At some point we will look at getting the tank removed, but removal costs are pretty steep, and any gas that's left gets bought back from you at 50% of the price you paid!  At current rate of use, what's in the tank will last us another 2-3 years.

This post was modified 3 years ago 2 times by Peterr

   
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(@batalto)
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@mattengineer interesting to see Go off peak prices up 50% - admittedly from 5p to 7.5p isnt exactly costing the earth. But still quite a rise from them.

12kW Midea ASHP - 8.4kw solar - 29kWh batteries
262m2 house in Hampshire
Current weather compensation: 47@-2 and 31@17
My current performance can be found - HERE
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Majordennisbloodnok
(@majordennisbloodnok)
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Yes-ish, @Peterr. Certainly it's possible to switch from one supplier maintaining a tank to another. However, it's the worst hybrid of the oil vs mains gas models.

It's a bit of hassle to switch gas or electricity suppliers, but the cost per unit remains consistent day to day, with price rises having to be communicated in advance. As a result, if one supplier really hikes their price, the consumer can switch (swallowing the hassle to do so in order to save money). On the other hand, a consumer running on oil owns their own tank and can buy from whichever supplier they wish as often as they wish.

With LPG, the consumer has all the wild price swings related to oil, but can only buy from the supplier currently maintaining the tank unless they factor in a switch time of up to 4 weeks. That's a huge barrier to competition.

105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and SPH5000 inverter
1 x Myenergi Zappi
1 x VW ID3
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; suus solum profundum variat"


   
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(@peterr)
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Posted by: @majordennisbloodnok

Yes-ish, @Peterr. Certainly it's possible to switch from one supplier maintaining a tank to another. However, it's the worst hybrid of the oil vs mains gas models.

It's a bit of hassle to switch gas or electricity suppliers, but the cost per unit remains consistent day to day, with price rises having to be communicated in advance. As a result, if one supplier really hikes their price, the consumer can switch (swallowing the hassle to do so in order to save money). On the other hand, a consumer running on oil owns their own tank and can buy from whichever supplier they wish as often as they wish.

With LPG, the consumer has all the wild price swings related to oil, but can only buy from the supplier currently maintaining the tank unless they factor in a switch time of up to 4 weeks. That's a huge barrier to competition.

Wild price swings for LPG aren't necessarily the case.  For at least the last 8 years we've been on 2 year "fixed price" contracts, where the supplier can only increase the price by a certain amount in any 6 month period.  Our current contract only allows a 3p per litre increase, if they want to increase by more than that then we can end the contract early without penalty.  I agree that once you are out of contract then suppliers can set the price however they want, but having options to switch should stop them going too wild.  Anyone with a bulk LPG tank who is not on a fixed price contract is just asking to be shafted!

I can't see the LPG model switching to be like the oil model.  An oil tank is just a tank; you open the lid and pour in oil.  Bulk LPG tanks are pressurised vessels with a whole load of safety measures built in to them, they have to be inspected at regular intervals, and the only way to ensure that happens is to have the tank contracted to a supplier.


   
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Majordennisbloodnok
(@majordennisbloodnok)
Noble Member Moderator
7259 kWhs
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That makes sense, @Peterr.

105 m2 bungalow in South East England
Mitsubishi Ecodan 8.5 kW air source heat pump
18 x 360W solar panels
1 x 6 kW GroWatt battery and SPH5000 inverter
1 x Myenergi Zappi
1 x VW ID3
Raised beds for home-grown veg and chickens for eggs

"Semper in excretia; suus solum profundum variat"


   
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(@prjohn)
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A further threat to electricity prices if anybody missed it is the Nuclear Energy Financing bill. This had its final Westminster reading last Monday. If passed, which is likely, it will shift billions of pounds of additional costs onto consumers and force millions more into fuel poverty. Nuclear construction costs far exceed those of renewables and electricity generation is twice as expensive. The price for nuclear energy is £106/MWh, double the wholesale market price, whereas offshore wind power is £36.95/MWh. The Westminster bill will force consumers to finance this through government-guaranteed strike prices resulting in more expensive nuclear electricity, just as household energy bills are soaring and casting more families into fuel poverty.


   
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(@kev-m)
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Posted by: @prjohn

A further threat to electricity prices if anybody missed it is the Nuclear Energy Financing bill. This had its final Westminster reading last Monday. If passed, which is likely, it will shift billions of pounds of additional costs onto consumers and force millions more into fuel poverty. Nuclear construction costs far exceed those of renewables and electricity generation is twice as expensive. The price for nuclear energy is £106/MWh, double the wholesale market price, whereas offshore wind power is £36.95/MWh. The Westminster bill will force consumers to finance this through government-guaranteed strike prices resulting in more expensive nuclear electricity, just as household energy bills are soaring and casting more families into fuel poverty.

I am glad the government is planning ahead and wish they had done more of this sooner.  It doesn't matter how cheap it is or how much we have, offshore wind is useless when it's not windy.  I'm happy to pay extra for security of supply although £106/MWh looks like a bargain at the moment.   

Elec Prices

Or should we just keep buying a lot of expensive fossil fuels from other countries? 


   
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(@prjohn)
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@kev-m The Nuclear Energy Financing bill was written before the recent price increases so the data will be out of date. But the point is we will as consumers be subsidising the new power stations for decades helping the profits of these companies, which are all located abroad. If planning ahead is to increase the burden on the public then the energy market is broken.

 


   
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(@andris)
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Screenshot 20220202 074702 Samsung Internet

I am now with Eonnext on their variable tariff 20p/kw. When I logged on today, it offered me to switch to a one year fix tariff.

 

16kw Samsung TDM ASHP. 8.4kw PV, power optimizers 20×420watt panels 6kw SolarEdge inverter.


   
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(@kev-m)
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It's a high standing charge but I'd be tempted by that.  I wonder if it's anything to do with the latest subsidies just appearing in the news?


   
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