We are regular users of buses and trains and bikes.

We use our van for about 1500 miles a year typically currently primarily holidays. So less than the typical 7k miles for households in the UK according to mot records. Sometimes the van isn't driven for months.

We would perhaps use personal transport more if public transport was heavily cut or not subsidised.

Neither of us drive to work and neither of us like driving and don't worry about the time when we can't drive.

Both my younger brothers are disabled and don't drive and use buses and trains. Both have a free bus pass and discounted train travel. One can walk, the other only a few metres.

None of us live in London.

Myself and my partner can walk to the train station and buses.

I appreciate we are certainly not  typical households regarding cars. I can appreciate the different views and needs regarding cars and public transport.

Do you think EVs will mean more or less cars on the road? Or perhaps make no material difference?

@jeff, that's a very good illustration of the complexities and one of several reasons I was careful how I phrased my lack of enthusiasm for subsidies. I specifically said "in their current form" since I'm well aware the answer is not simply to cut off public transport's life support and let the components live or die based on how large their customer base is right now.

Long term, I can see the potential for self-driving EVs to become a kind of fleet of individualised public transport for rural communities but I can also see plenty of obstacles that might stop that potential ever being realised. The most expensive part of public transport is the driver and so the current model requires people get to the nearest "boarding hub" so that one driver can service many people. Self-driving EVs could potentially do away with that requirement and allow people to give up car ownership and replace it with pre-ordering transport to/from their home when necessary from a taxi-style driverless service. If that were ever to come about, that would mean more cars on the road at any one time but fewer actual cars in existence; it would be a somewhat leaner model.

If, as is likely, that theory doesn't come to pass then I suspect any viable rural public transport service would need both greater subsidy and mechanisms to stop that investment simply being soaked up by the need to provide a return for investors. In effect, a return to some form of public sector or non-profit management but NOT run the inefficient way nationalised services were run in the past. This is another area where I recognise I REALLY don't have all the answers.

Posted by: @majordennisbloodnok

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I can see the potential for self-driving EVs to become a kind of fleet of individualised public transport for rural communities but I can also see plenty of obstacles that might stop that potential ever being realised.

Absolutely!

The regulatory obstacles were addressed in the Automated Vehicles Act (May 2024).

And I agree with you that rural communities offer the greatest potential. Obstacles in my area are mainly sheep.

Posted by: @transparent

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And I agree with you that rural communities offer the greatest potential. Obstacles in my area are mainly sheep.

Obstacles in my area are NIMBYs; that significant portion of the general public thinking it's a really good solution "for everyone else". Lots of entitlement going on around here....

For me, I can't wait. As soon as they've cracked the algorithms well enough that self driving cars are statistically safer than human-piloted ones I'm at the front of the queue. I'd far rather have a computer do battle with the selfish attitude of driving round here than have to deal with it myself; roll on the time I can just relax and be chauffeured.

@majordennisbloodnok Oh Major! That sounds ideal to me too; neither my wife nor I may drive due to visual impairment and at its’ best, public transport leaves a lot to be desired. I am not against a computer driving me around at all - probably a great deal safer than many motorists (except those on this forum of course!) Regards, Toodles.

Posted by: @transparent

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Posted by: @majordennisbloodnok

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I can see the potential for self-driving EVs to become a kind of fleet of individualised public transport for rural communities but I can also see plenty of obstacles that might stop that potential ever being realised.

Absolutely!

The regulatory obstacles were addressed in the Automated Vehicles Act (May 2024).

And I agree with you that rural communities offer the greatest potential. Obstacles in my area are mainly sheep.

Am looking forward to being driven around.

One of my first jobs after university was working on autonomous vehicles for the MOD in the 80s.

This is some of the later unclassified material of how it evolved over time.

https://users.fmrib.ox.ac.uk/~steve/integration/integration/integration.html

A shame we weren't great as a country in commercialising a lot of ideas generally at the time.

That Asset-2 looks fascinating @jeff

Of course, the MOD did actually commercialise Moving Obstacle Detection and Tracking.
It's what we now call Storm Shadow  

On a slightly more serious note 'we' need to consider how we're going to facilitate charge-points for Autonomous EVs.

Here in rural Devon, I've discussed the issue with the Area Manager for National Grid.
He's offered to supply conduit whenever roadside works are being undertaken.
That would enable electrical cables to be pulled through at a later date without incurring high infrastructure costs.

Posted by: @transparent

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On a slightly more serious note 'we' need to consider how we're going to facilitate charge-points for Autonomous EVs.

...

By that, @transparent, do you mean "facilitate" as in how they work or as in where they are located? Or both?

As for how they work I'd've invisaged reuse of the basic Heathrow Pod model where the autonomous EVs would dock and charge when needed. I don't see it would be that difficult to come up with a practical algorithm for scheduling charging in amongst people's requests for transport and, at the same time, scheduling people's requests in amongst known range limitations/requirements to charge.

As for location, I have to admit I'm encouraged by the pragmatic joined-up thinking of the National Grid Area Manager in terms of the conduit. The cost of that extra bit of work is negligible and the likely benefit of a bit of forward planning is high. More power to his elbow.

I'm assuming that it will be the manufacturers of autonomous pods who decide the type of connector and the mechanism which allows a vehicle to safely dock to a charge point.

It would be far too straightforward to base the design on something which has been working reliably at airports for many years.

As I see it, there will be three main docking point designs:

1. The version proposed by VW, Renault and Skoda. It will have been carefully evaluated, approved by standards committees and field-tested by engineers. The project is called BetaMax-2.
2. The BYD version; similar approach to above, but arrives two years earlier and costs 50% less to install. The connector is called Very High Speed (VHS), despite working slower than a BetaMax-2 and intermittently dropping out because it collects grease and dirt on the contacts.
3. The Tesla version; based on the mechanism used to reliably connect SpaceX capsules to the ISS. It charges three times faster than the others and simultaneously bio-cleanses the pod using UV-C light. Only Tesla pods can dock to it.

So that just leaves us to work out where these docking stations could go.
I favour positions where:

• there is an existing bus-stop, because they're widely spread, universally associated with community transport, and often have a lay-by
• there's a nearby 3-phase local substation

It's relatively easy to identify such locations. I simply get a copy of the bus route maps and overlay the network map from my DNO.

Then I talk with the local councillors because they really do understand how that area works, where there are households who would be considered 'vulnerable', and how many children currently use school transport etc.

The downside is that 'transport' will soon fall within the remit of the National Energy System Operator (NESO), and the Regional Energy System Plan groups (RESPs).
As yet, they seem to be taking a top-down approach, which doesn't bode well.

So I'll be raising the matter of auto-pod charge points when I respond to the current Ofgem consultation on RESPs.

Posted by: @transparent

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As I see it, there will be three main docking point designs:

1. The version proposed by VW, Renault and Skoda. It will have been carefully evaluated, approved by standards committees and field-tested by engineers. The project is called BetaMax-2.
2. The BYD version; similar approach to above, but arrives two years earlier and costs 50% less to install. The connector is called Very High Speed (VHS), despite working slower than a BetaMax-2 and intermittently dropping out because it collects grease and dirt on the contacts.
3. The Tesla version; based on the mechanism used to reliably connect SpaceX capsules to the ISS. It charges three times faster than the others and simultaneously bio-cleanses the pod using UV-C light. It is rumoured within the engineering community to have several safety issues which Mr Musk strenuously denies and job advertisements for maintenance staff require engineers with three elbow joints per arm. Only Tesla pods can dock to it.