It’s been over four years since I launched Renewable Heating Hub. In that time, I’ve spoken to hundreds of homeowners, installers, manufacturers and policy stakeholders across the UK. Through our website, podcast and forums, we’ve tracked the long, often frustrating journey of low-carbon heating adoption (especially heat pumps) in real UK homes. We’ve covered the highs, the lows and the very bodged.
I was invited to speak at InstallerSHOW 2025, the UK’s largest trade show for heating, plumbing and renewables. I was part of a panel titled “Everything You Need to Know About Heat Pumps”, joined by fellow authors Graham Hendra, Lewis Litherland, Ian Edgeworth and James Law, all of whom, like me, have written books aimed at helping the public and the industry understand heat pump technology more clearly.
It was an honour to be included in this group and, more broadly, to be recognised as part of the national heat pump conversation. The invitation also gave me the nudge to attend the show in person for the first time, something I’d long meant to do, but hadn’t prioritised. And I’m very glad I went.
A Heat Pump Majority
InstallerSHOW 2025 was held at the NEC in Birmingham. I spent almost all of my time in Hall 5, the largest exhibition hall, which was largely devoted to heating… in all its forms.
As I walked from interview to interview, speaking with representatives from Mitsubishi, NIBE, CTC, Navien, Daikin, Panasonic and others, I began to notice something striking: boilers were largely absent. I didn’t conduct a formal count, but I estimate that perhaps three or four boiler stands were present in total. By contrast, heat pumps were everywhere.
Air source heat pumps, in particular, dominated the show floor. It wasn’t just the technology that was visible, the visitor interest was equally evident. The stands were busy. People were asking questions. Installers were engaged. Brand reps had little time to breathe.
I spoke to several people at the show who said this was the first year where it felt like boilers were taking a back seat. That observation may sound symbolic, but it’s a genuinely significant shift for a sector that has long been resistant to change.
In other words, if you were looking for a moment that hints at a turning point, this may have been it.
The Refrigerant Shift
From a technology perspective, one of the most consistent themes across the interviews we recorded was the growing shift towards R290 refrigerant.
R290, or propane, is a natural refrigerant with an extremely low global warming potential. Importantly for UK homes, it also supports higher flow temperatures, with some manufacturers quoting output up to 75-80C, allowing more like-for-like replacements for legacy systems without compromising comfort, and major home upgrades.
For homeowners with older pipework or systems that still depend on higher flow temperatures, this may prove to be a key enabler for switching away from fossil fuel boilers.
A Market in Transition
What struck me most was not the technology itself (although there was plenty to be impressed by) but the tone of the industry. There was a maturity in the conversation that hasn’t always been present. Most of the big legacy boiler manufacturers were only exhibiting heat pumps. Some had no boiler presence at all.
It feels like we’ve moved from a defensive posture (“we’re watching and waiting”) to an active phase of product development and market realignment. Yes, this transition is far from complete, and there are still issues around installer readiness, system design competence, MCS standards and consumer confidence, but there’s no denying the shift underway.
From the manufacturers we spoke to, the message was consistent: this is happening.
The Missing Piece
If InstallerSHOW proved anything, it’s that the technology is no longer the bottleneck. The products are here. The R&D has been done. The systems are capable. The controllers still need work, but that’s being worked on too.
The weak link (as many of us already know) is installation quality. A high-performing unit means little if it’s not installed and commissioned properly. And this is where the next wave of work must happen.
We still need clearer messaging for homeowners, more transparent performance data and robust post-installation support. But the direction of travel is clear.
Looking Ahead
Is 2026 the year of the heat pump? Not in terms of total installations… those will still take time to scale. But culturally, symbolically and in terms of industry alignment? We may look back and say this was the year the tide properly turned.
The real test will be what happens next. Will policy and training keep pace with the ambition shown by manufacturers? Will we see more proactive homeowner engagement? Will installers be supported to upskill at scale?
I remain cautiously optimistic. Having walked the floors of Hall 5, spoken to the people building the systems and training the next generation of engineers and installers, and heard firsthand the industry’s renewed focus, I genuinely believe we’re at a critical inflection point.
InstallerSHOW 2025 may well be remembered as the moment when the heat pump took centre stage.