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									Electricity price predictions - Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers				            </title>
            <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/</link>
            <description>Questions and discussions about renewable heating and heat pumps</description>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/138/#post-65835</link>
                        <pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 12:50:25 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[So a final update on Charge Pack, now I have nearly reached the end of the month.

While only announcing 5 events in the month, its plain to see that the tariff makes good use of the batte...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So a final update on Charge Pack, now I have nearly reached the end of the month.</p>
15579
<p>While only announcing 5 events in the month, its plain to see that the tariff makes good use of the battery every night (The outliers in the centre are where we lost broadband for a few days). Each event earns me between £1.23 and £1.61, so adding that to the £12 guaranteed income, I should make about £20. However I notice that my battery only gets charged to about 70% before sunrise and so am losing 20% of 10 kWh (2kWh) of solar export every day (12p-8p = 4p/kWh)</p>
<p>For me, given the high cost of Huawei battery modules, I dont think the reward is worth the extra wear and tear on the battery. Once I get my £12, Im going to switch out of the tariff and export 50% of my battery at peak time every night in the summer.</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>bontwoody</dc:creator>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65373</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 21:17:12 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[I agree, we will find out at the next budget whether the removal of VAT from electricity bills will become permanent, or at least to the end of this parliament.
If it becomes permanent, the...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree, we will find out at the next budget whether the removal of VAT from electricity bills will become permanent, or at least to the end of this parliament.</p>
<p>If it becomes permanent, then I see that as a positive green choice rather than purely a cost of living choice, as they could just as easily use that money to tweak income tax thresholds to help 'working people' keep more of their earnings.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>Old_Scientist</dc:creator>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65372</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:19:08 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[The press release says how it is funded for this financial year, it doesn&#039;t say that it applies only for this financial year.  That&#039;s subtly, but importantly, different.  The action is not n...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-pm-cuts-tax-on-household-electricity-bills-to-give-breathing-space-on-cost-of-living" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> says how it is <em>funded</em> for this financial year, it doesn't say that it <em>applies</em> only for this financial year.  That's subtly, but importantly, different.  The action is not necessarily time limited according to the press release, its the the current source of funding that is, leaving space to find funding to continue it at the next budget, or not if there are more comprehensive measures which supercede it, which the press release hints at.  Furthermore it states what is taken off the annual price cap not what effect it will have over any particular period.  Pretty much nothing is <em>ever</em> guaranteed beyond the next budget (due in November) anyway, so Im not sure how it can be any more misleading than estimates of the effects of tax increases extrapolated to a year (or sometimes even 5!) or the headlines that the price cap has increased by £x when, in fact, it is reviewed every 3 months!  Perhaps we need to wait until the actual statutory instrument (or whatever is needed to change VAT rates) is published and we see what happens in November.</p>
<p>The press release also says that 'to ensure that households in NI receive the same support as quickly as the rest of the UK, the NI Executive will receive comparable funding to enable it to support NI Households with the Cost of Living.', so whilst NI households don't get this support they could get something broadly equivalent should the NI Executive choose to do so.</p>
<p>Of course if you want to read it the way you have you can, but its not what the Government actually announced.  Having ascertained the facts which are currently available I cant see anything misleading in the actual press release; if the media have concocted a misleading story then that is their responsibility.  Once the order implementing the cut is published (or located) then we will be able to see whether it actually applies only for six months or is indefinite, at which point we can make an informed judgement!</p>
<p>In  the end though there are three kinds of lies, of which statistics is the third.  This is always the case and gives a lot of flexibility to all parties to spin things how they choose.  Its for this reason that I tend to go to source wherever possible before interpreting anything anyone tells me is true, whichever side of politics they come from or lean towards.  I realise that basing judgements on first party facts as opposed to third party opinion is outdated, but it seems to me to be a sounder way to live one's life. </p>
<p>FWIW I suspect that the VAT may well be reimposed to avoid the enforced difference to NI, but superseded by something else more comprehensive.  That's certainly what I would do if I were in charge (and based on the limited information I have at my disposal)</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>JamesPa</dc:creator>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65370</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 18:27:18 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[@etchedpixels yeah, it&#039;s very misleading, because I read the announcement earlier this week thinking, step on the direction, until I found today it&#039;s six months.]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[@etchedpixels yeah, it's very misleading, because I read the announcement earlier this week thinking, step on the direction, until I found today it's six months.]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>Mars</dc:creator>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65367</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 17:50:49 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[I can believe that for everything other than things like energy that have price control. 
That said if the vat rate had been increased by the same amount I&#039;m sure the industry would have re...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p>Removing VAT on things generally does not change the price at all. There's a whole wall of economic studies on that one. Should be different in this case though as there's a bit of leverage on the government side for a short while before it vanishes again in the raised price cap.</p>
<p></p>
<p>I can believe that for everything other than things like energy that have price control. </p>
<p>That said if the vat rate had been increased by the same amount I'm sure the industry would have reacted!  Just like the people who are saying that a 20% cut in business rates for pubs doesn't make a difference, who would doubtless be up in arms if the rates were increased by 20%.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>JamesPa</dc:creator>
                        <guid isPermaLink="true">https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65367</guid>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65366</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 17:45:51 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[Correct NI is bound by the EU VAT floor on energy, although another semi consequence of that is having a 15-20p standing charge.
Removing VAT on things generally does not change the price a...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Correct NI is bound by the EU VAT floor on energy, although another semi consequence of that is having a 15-20p standing charge.</p>
<p>Removing VAT on things generally does not change the price at all. There's a whole wall of economic studies on that one. Should be different in this case though as there's a bit of leverage on the government side for a short while before it vanishes again in the raised price cap.</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>EtchedPixels</dc:creator>
                        <guid isPermaLink="true">https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65366</guid>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65364</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 17:35:00 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[Whatever changes are made they won&#039;t be perfect, not least because each of the 70 million people in the country has their own definition of perfect and most no longer care about anyone other...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p>@editor Seems to have gone down like a lead balloon locally</p>
<p>Trailed as 45 quid, then everyone realises its only 6 months so that's deliberately misleading. Then everybody (mostly poor) realizes that they use very little power as they can't afford to turn the heating on in the first place so actually will maybe save a tenner or less but MPs who can no longer expense their stable heating, people with fancy Teslas and swimming pools will get a ton more.</p>
<p>Even less amusement in Northern Ireland (where it's not happening)</p>
<p>Should have tackled standing charges first, and definitely shouldn't have trailed a 6 month scheme on a yearly price basis.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Terrible communications, and questionable execution.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Whatever changes are made they won't be perfect, not least because each of the 70 million people in the country has their own definition of perfect and most no longer care about anyone other than themselves, at least in part because politicians, particularly in the 80s, have taught them to have that attitude.</p>
<p>Fiddling with vat rates inevitably delivers more cash to those who spend more than it does to those who spend less.  However in percentage terms fiddling with vat rates on <em>essentials</em> is likely to benefit those who spend less much more, because they spend a greater proportion on essentials. </p>
<p>Vat rate changes easy  and can be implemented quickly and therefore attractive, and also helps those with high consumption due to medical needs and people with resistance electric heating only which predominantly are poorer people.  Furthermore it advances the green agenda.</p>
<p>So as a quick thing to do it's not difficult to see the attractions.  More root and branch reform is certainly needed, but this will inevitably also throw up winners and losers with which not everyone will agree and the media will (totally irrespective of what the changes actually are) represent as bad (a) because for much of the media this suits their political agenda and (b) bad news and scandal sells. </p>
<p>Put simply there is nothing that can realistically be done that everyone will approve of and whatever is done the media will, for the most part, represent it as bad. </p>
<p>I cant comment on the communication because I have yet to tease out what the government said from how the self serving media chose to report it.</p>
<p>I presume it doesn't apply to ni because ni partly is bound by EU rules?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>JamesPa</dc:creator>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65359</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 16:29:24 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[@bontwoody It’s not that great is it, given you are loaning them your rather costly hardware. They should share more of this pie with their customers.
Last year they used to credit me an ad...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@bontwoody It’s not that great is it, given you are loaning them your rather costly hardware. They should share more of this pie with their customers.</p>
<p>Last year they used to credit me an additional circa £3 a session for NOT contributing to the DFS sessions as I was on IOF anyway. </p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>Papahuhu</dc:creator>
                        <guid isPermaLink="true">https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65359</guid>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65354</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 16:10:57 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[@editor Seems to have gone down like a lead balloon locally
Trailed as 45 quid, then everyone realises its only 6 months so that&#039;s deliberately misleading. Then everybody (mostly poor) real...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@editor Seems to have gone down like a lead balloon locally</p>
<p>Trailed as 45 quid, then everyone realises its only 6 months so that's deliberately misleading. Then everybody (mostly poor) realizes that they use very little power as they can't afford to turn the heating on in the first place so actually will maybe save a tenner or less but MPs who can no longer expense their stable heating, people with fancy Teslas and swimming pools will get a ton more.</p>
<p>Even less amusement in Northern Ireland (where it's not happening)</p>
<p>Should have tackled standing charges first, and definitely shouldn't have trailed a 6 month scheme on a yearly price basis.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Terrible communications, and questionable execution.</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>EtchedPixels</dc:creator>
                        <guid isPermaLink="true">https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65354</guid>
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                        <title>RE: Electricity price predictions</title>
                        <link>https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/electricity-price-predictions/paged/137/#post-65353</link>
                        <pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 15:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
                        <description><![CDATA[@papahuhu 
I actually got a bill today so I have a bit more insight into whats going on.

It seems that overall my ratio of peak to off peak hasnt really changed. However my total usage e...]]></description>
                        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@papahuhu </p>
<p>I actually got a bill today so I have a bit more insight into whats going on.</p>
15498
<p>It seems that overall my ratio of peak to off peak hasnt really changed. However my total usage excluding my EV charging has gone up by about 3.5 kWh per day (all off peak). My export on the other hand has gone up per day by almost the same amount. So that equates to a profit of about 15p per day. I have also been credited twice for £1.61 for two charge pack sessions. The minimum they promise you can earn is £12 per month but I think that would not include the extra 15p per day. So I will probably be about £16 up for the month.</p>
<p>Whether that is worth the extra strain on my battery, Im not sure.</p>]]></content:encoded>
						                            <category domain="https://renewableheatinghub.co.uk/forums/electricity-providers/">Electricity, Tariffs, Monitoring, Electrics &amp; Providers</category>                        <dc:creator>bontwoody</dc:creator>
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